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Msg  182985 of 183601  at  11/9/2022 11:09:46 AM  by

toddforthree


Re: level 3 stuff


I know you keep track of this, and I'd appreciate if you could comment on whether LVLT is growing revenue or is it mainly flat.'''longhair

revenue in 2019 was 7,593, 7,725 in 20 and 7729 in 21. slightly up but not much to be excited about unless you look at the disaster called centurylink. ha

to get to your free cash flow question it depends on the capex numbers. I think lvlt capex will actually be in the 14 to 14.5% range after selling Latin America. you can look at it as well if you want. in the past it was about 15% so we arent far off. so if thats right and level3 is 40% of the total proforma lumen revenue you can see where free cash flow might be higher than the street thinks because lvlt's capex needs are less than what they sold. you dont have to hook up the buildings twice, just once.

if lvlt capex to revenue is 14% then the other 60% of revenue i will figure will be at 20% of revenue. non lvlt revenue (centurylink) after taking out 500m of the ilec that was sold is 2.1 billion per quarter or lets say 8.4 b a year for the new company. 20% of that number is capex of 1.680b. 14% of lvlt's revenue of 7.729b is 1.08b in capex. total capex before we get into the quantum fiber build is 2.760 for the new lumen company if you add the two together. if wall street has ebitda of 5.3b for this new company and we use a 76% cash conversion cycle we get 4.028 in cash to spend from the 5.3b in ebitda. subtract out the 2.760b in OLD capex and you have 1.268 billion to spend on quantum capex for growth. figure one million houses passed (we hope) at a 1000 a house is 1b with some money left over for stock buybacks. at some point quantum adds to cash flow but lets just stop here and wait for comments. ha. If i screwed up feel free to correct me




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Msg # Subject Author Recs Date Posted
182987 Re: level 3 stuff Professor Longhair 0 11/9/2022 12:05:19 PM




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