FROM: Telecom on Grantís with Moffett | LUMN Message Board Posts


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Msg  181496 of 182272  at  8/11/2022 8:46:08 PM  by

from6454

The following message was updated on 8/11/2022 8:56:53 PM.

 In response to msg 181495 by  from6454
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Re: FROM: Telecom on Grantís with Moffett

   
all the same problems that LUMN is facing right now..  Thought TMUS is in a good position with lower debt ratio, and strong FCF, but T for sure will have to cut price, offer phone deal to get customers from TMUS, who would know what kind of price war will hurt TMUS's EBIDTA/FCF.  VZ will have no choice but to get into price war too, since they don't have the best 5G customer experiences.  I would not touch T/VZ/TMUS.
 
And Moffett is correct.  VZ/T have very low institution ownership.  T 53% VZ 63%.  CHTR 69%, CMCSA 85%.  ATUS 98%.  As to ATUS's high institution ownership, I think it has something to do with their high short interest ratio 25%.  Now there could be some short squeeze or expectation of turn around of ATUS, causing such high institution ownership.  I for one don't think ATUS is able to turn around. 
 
The same problems for cable...  losing revenue from video, spend CapEx to upgrade to fiber (ATUS), FWA competition with much lower price,  fiber with better service and better price.  Their 5.6X of high debt ratio and 7.4X of valuation is still high for a no/negative growth company. Might see the same BBBY/AMC type of trade.  Retail investors should avoid, for extremely professional traders only.
 
AT&T (3.9X) and VZ (3.5X) both with debt ratio now is higher than LUMN.   The same problem of LUMN, TOO MANY O/S SHARES.  If they needs to invest more on CapEx, reduce debt, and issue dividend, I think you already know what is going to happen.
 
Cut CapEx, stop those non-sense projects when they don't have orders.  Reduce debt, and reduce O/S shares at the same time.  Or VZ/T/LUMN will need to eliminate their dividend very soon.
 
At this point, I think LUMN can control their CapEx, spend $2B to reduce their O/S shares (since their stock price still low in comparing assets valuation) , and they can still manage their dividend.
 
What a mess,  and it just started.  Nothing they can do now.  The only thing under their control is CapEx.
 
And 7 years ago, when many analysts already knew telecom is going to be a disaster, Storey was still buying more assets and M&A with CTL.  If he just opened his eyes and swallowed his arrogance and ego, talk to and hire industrial experts and analysts, sell LVLT just like ZAYO.  Investors won't be in today's S@#T hole.
 
For such craps, he and his team still have a job, collect stock option, and still get paid like T/VZ/CHTR/CMCSA CEO, companies that are more than 10 times of LUMN's size.  What a greedy shameless #$@%...
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 


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