BMY 3Aug2022 PR "Bristol Myers Squibb to Host Virtual Investor Event to Discuss ESC 2022 Highlights | BMY Message Board Posts


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Msg  10098 of 10557  at  8/3/2022 5:44:10 PM  by

JBWIN


 In response to msg 10095 by  JBWIN
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Re: BMY 3Aug2022 PR "Bristol Myers Squibb to Host Virtual Investor Event to Discuss ESC 2022 Highlights" on 28Aug2022 1 pm ET

 
Msg 9790 of 10097 at 6/2/2022 10:41:20 AM by

JBWIN

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Positive Milvexian Nugget from Bernstein Fireside Chat with GC and SH

The highly anticipated Phase II Milvexian Factor X1a SSP data is now in-house. Consistent with BMY and most large biopharma practice, the data will be disclosed at an appropriate medical/scientific meeting, however, commentary included that there is sufficient information from SSP and previously disclosed TKR study to design Phase III strategy with partner Janssen with no further details about indications at this juncture.
Note the thesis for Citi raising BMY PT to 90 was based on enthusiasm for Factor XII.
 
Msg 9732 of 9788 at 5/26/2022 8:16:43 AM by

JBWIN

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In response to msg 9729 by zippypieview thread

Re: Bristol-Myers price target raised to $90 from $75 at Citi

Citi - BMY: Milvexian and More. Doubling Estimates, PT to $90. Remain Buy

CITI'S TAKE
We have increased our estimate for BMY’s share of risk-adjusted milvexian
revenues to c.$6.5bn vs c.$2bn captured in consensus forecasts. We refer
readers to today’s Deep Dive companion report (Factor XI Inhibitors. The
Largest and Broadest Commercial Opportunity Since PD1/ Cancer
Immunotherapy), reflecting the risk and commercial opportunities in 13
separate indications. We expect potential approval for the first indication as
early as 2026/2027. We expect phase II AXIOMATIC-SSP data at ESC to
reassure on bleeding risk, but the efficacy signal could underwhelm. We have
increased our non-GAAP EPS forecasts up to 40% in 2035. The c.$8/share
NPV for milvexian reflects c.8% of our new DCF derived TP (vs our prior PT
of $75). We prefer Buy-rated ABBV, LLY, and BMY in the US; AZN, BAYN,
ROG, NVO in EU.
What’s new? — BMY’s single digit multiple made it one of the key beneficiaries of
the recent sector rotation despite the post 2026 headwinds from Eliquis, Opdivo,
Revlimid, and Pomalyst loss of exclusivity. While near term the stock looks ripe for
profit taking, we believe that the outsized long term potential of milvexian (blood
thinner) supports higher valuations for long term investors, assuming phase II
AXIOMATIC-SSP data is supportive for bleeding risk. The efficacy signal in the phase
II could prove modest given (i) plaque positive patients (different from BAYN’s
PACIFIC-STROKE trial) (ii) dual antiplatelet background therapy. Outside milvexian,
we continue to anticipate approval of deucravacitinib for psoriasis by the FDA in
September, with a label that includes warnings over adverse events associated with
approved JAK inhibitors but without the requirement for a step edit. We look forward
to seeing the phase II deucravacitinib Lupus data at the EULAR conference in July.
 

The detail — Today’s companion Deep Dive is the first detailed analysis of (i) forthcoming phase II data, (ii) potential indications and phase IIII trial design, and (iii) commercial opportunity and proprietary patient for both oral agents (BMY/JNJ’s milvexian and Bayer’s asundexian) as well as injectable MRK’s MK-2060 and Anthos’ abelacimab. We anticipate that forthcoming AXIOMATIC-SSP will demonstrate that no increase in major or clinically relevant non major bleeding when co-administered with dual anti-platelet therapy. Assuming data is supportive, we anticipate BMY and JNJ to initiate a broad trial program encompassing SSP, ESRD, SPAF, ACS, and CAD/PAD among others, involving >50k patients over 4-5 years.




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