Deucravacitinib exhibits competitive profile | BMY Message Board Posts


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Msg  6895 of 7919  at  4/26/2021 3:32:40 PM  by

lumpygravy


Deucravacitinib exhibits competitive profile

UBS....
 
Bristol-Myers Squibb
12m price target US$66.00  

Deucravacitinib exhibits competitive profile - AAD
call takeaways
 
P3 POETYK PSO-1 and PSO-2 data presented at American Academy of
Dermatology (AAD)

Today, BMY presented full p3 data from two trials of TYK2 inhibitor deucravacitinib in
moderate-to-severe plaque psoriasis. Recall BMY toplined POETYK PSO-1 in Nov '20
and PSO-2 in Feb '21, so we already knew the drug met its primary endpoints in both
trials: superiority in 16w PASI-75 (75+% improvement in Psoriasis and Severity Index)
and sPGA 0/1 (clear/almost clear static Physician's Global Assessment score), both vs.
placebo. We also knew deucravacitinib showed superiority to Otezla against these two
metrics. We were waiting for details including magnitude of effect and most
importantly, detailed safety analysis.

Positives and negatives - thoughts on the data
Positives:
1) Magnitude of efficacy appears almost similar to older biologics such as
Enbrel (albeit not as strong as newer products like Skyrizi); 2) Potentially better
tolerability than Otezla - lower rates of headache, nausea, diarrhea. 3) No real increase
in cardiovascular AEs/ no safety signal vs. placebo (DVT/PE or MACE events) - there were
2 cases in the deucravacitnib arm, but 1 was related to patient who had aortic dissection
and 1 related to patient who was on an IV catheter - both cases were not deemed
related to deucra;
Negatives: 1) Higher rates of herpes zoster (shingles) vs. Otezla and
placebo, albeit not statistically significant.
Net-net: Otezla, though not the most
efficacious option, generated $2.2b in sales last year, largely because it is safe and oral.
Our KOL consultants at the UBS Expert Symposium last week suggested psoriasis is a
highly competitive space now - tough to see Otezla being displaced unless an oral is
more efficacious and better tolerated. Deucravacitinib appears to fit this profile and, as
such, looks like a very competitive asset

Potential upside to our estimates & thoughts on the stock
Our model only includes $1.5B risk adjusted for Psoriasis in '29, which appears low vs.
consensus $2.4B & BMY's LT guidance (unadjusted) is >$4B. After seeing the very clean
profile exhibited today, we acknowledge there may be upside to our estimates,
particularly in indications which we do not currently model. BMY is studying deucra in
Psoriatic Arthritis, Ulcerative Colitis, Crohn's Disease and Lupus. UC, CD & Lupus will be
more challenging to showcase a benefit, but also have higher unmet need. BMY stock
has rallied in last few weeks on the back of pharma group strength, as well as some
anticipation for today's data. Despite the anticipation, we are somewhat surprised by
the fact that stock is flat given what appears to be a competitive profile for deucra. Some
investors have suggested they are still looking for clarification on what the label will look

like for deucra (i.e., will there be boxed warning b/c of Tyk-2s "association" with other
Jak inhibitors? We do NOT think so.) and launch execution

 
 


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