01-Aug-2022 02:37PM, DJ Moderna''s Earnings Are Coming. Market Share and 2 More Points to Watch. -- | NVAX Message Board Posts


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Msg  187897 of 198597  at  8/1/2022 2:39:34 PM  by

NO FEAR!


01-Aug-2022 02:37PM, DJ Moderna''s Earnings Are Coming. Market Share and 2 More Points to Watch. -- Barrons.com

01-Aug-2022 02:37PM, DJ Moderna''s Earnings Are Coming. Market Share and 2 More Points to Watch. -- Barrons.com



By Josh Nathan-Kazis


Moderna will report its earnings this week amid an unusually strong stretch for the stock.

Shares are up 35% since the market closed on June 14, a period in which the S&P 500 has climbed 10.6%. Yet as of Friday's close at $164.09, the stock was still down 35.4% so far this year, leaving it miles below the high of above $490 it hit in early August 2021.

How long the current rally lasts will depend in part on what management has to say about its quarterly results on Wednesday, and how the biotech will defend its share of the market for Covid-9 vaccines against Pfizer's (PFE) far larger commercial operation.

Pfizer announced efforts last week to develop what it calls next-generation Covid-19 vaccines that it hopes will outperform the current crop, so investors will be eager to hear if Moderna has similar plans.

Whether the company's apparent aversion to M&A is continuing to soften will be in focus as well.

Moderna will report earnings Wednesday before the market opens. Analysts expect sales of $4.1 billion for the quarter, with earnings of $4.58 a share, according to FactSet. A conference call to discuss the results is scheduled for 8 a.m. Eastern.

Moderna stock trades at 9.8 times the per-share earnings expected over the next 12 months, according to FactSet.

In May, Moderna said it had advance purchase agreements in place for 2022 worth $21 billion. A $1.7 billion deal the company announced with the U.S. government on Friday could increase that number, though by how much isn't clear. Analysts currently expect Moderna to clock $22.2 billion in sales this year, according to FactSet.

Moderna is currently developing two vaccines for the fall, one for the U.S. market that mixes the original vaccine with a version that targets the BA.4/BA.5 subvariants of Omicron, and one for international markets that mixes the original vaccine with a version that targets the BA.1 subvariant.

The company is also working on a long list of other programs, including a much-watched mRNA-based flu vaccine. An update on that program, if it was to come on Wednesday, could be interesting to investors, given that Pfizer issued what appeared to be very positive early data on its own competing mRNA-based flu vaccine last week.

The earnings call comes amid growing threats to Moderna's position in the Covid-19 vaccine market. In its own earnings presentation last week, Pfizer said its shots accounted for 68% of the Covid-19 vaccines administered so far in developed markets, up from 59% in January. Making matters worse is that last month, Novavax (NVAX) finally succeeded in getting its Covid-19 vaccine on the market in the U.S.; the Food and Drug Administration authorized the shot as a two-dose primary series.

In May, Moderna said that its market share had "increased" or was "still consistent" in countries that are members of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. Investors will likely listening for how the company talks about its market share during this week's call.

As for M&A, CEO Stphane Bancel has emphasized using Moderna's cash reserves, which stood at $19.3 billion as of its last report, to pay for pricey trials of its own drugs and bulk up its already substantial development pipeline. Some analysts, however, have called for the company to use its cash for M&A. In June, SVB Securities analyst Mani Foroohar titled a note on Moderna: "Without Transformative [Business Development] Path [Forward] Looks Rocky."

In June, the company's head of investor relations, Lavina Talukdar, said at an industry conference hosted by Goldman Sachs that M&A is "priority number two" for Moderna, and that its business development teams are busy.

"So we want to now look at complementary technologies that will expand our expertise and let us go after other areas where nucleic acids or information molecules are going to have an impact on medicine," Talukdar said.

Bancel's own comments on potential M&A will be much watched on Wednesday.

Meanwhile, amid growing calls for a new generation of Covid-19 vaccines that can prevent infection in addition to severe disease, Pfizer last week announced two efforts to improve the protections offered by its Covid-19 vaccine. Moderna hasn't made any such announcements, so investors will likely be listening for one on Wednesday.

A final question the company may be called to answer is why the U.S. government is paying more per dose to Pfizer for the bivalent Covid-19 vaccine it will roll out this fall than it is paying for Moderna's? Moderna's deal, announced Friday, amounts to $26.36 per dose, while Pfizer is getting $30.48. Moderna did receive $1 billion from the U.S. government to develop its vaccine through the Operation Warp Speed program, while Pfizer took no such funding. Still, the $26.36 per-dose price is lower than some analysts had expected.


(END) Dow Jones Newswires


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187911 Re: 01-Aug-2022 02:37PM, DJ Moderna''s Earnings Are Coming. Market Share and 2 More Points to Watch. -- Barrons.com riverwalk 0 8/1/2022 4:28:50 PM




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