As it stands, analysts forecast revenue this year of $4.49 billion, but lower sales next year of $3.67 billion. Given that NXAX stock has a market capitalization of $4.39 billion now, it still trades over 1 times sales (1.2x). The point is that sales will likely fall over the next several years.
The good news is that this is very cheap compared to other vaccine makers. For example, Moderna trades for over 3.8 times sales and Pfizer is at a similar valuation. However, both of these companies have substantially higher sales and more countries and locations use their vaccines. So they deserve a much higher valuation, or put another way, Novavax deserves to have a discount. But should it really be at a 70% discount (i.e., 1.2x sales vs. 3.86x price-to-sales multiple)?
I suspect that, given the news of its combination vaccine, NVAX should be at just a 50% discount or 1.93 times sales. That implies its valuation should be 1.93 times $3.67 billion, or $7.08 billion. This is 62.9% higher than its $4.35 billion market value today. In other words, NVAX stock is worth $87.46 per share, up 62.9% from its price today of $53.69 per share.
This gives investors a good upside in NVAX stock. For example, even if it takes two years for this return to occur, the compound annual return will be 27.6% each year for the next two years. That is a good ROI for most investors and probably worth the risk, especially given how far NVAX stock has fallen.