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Msg  143782 of 164819  at  9/30/2021 3:31:58 AM  by


The following message was updated on 9/30/2021 3:31:58 AM.

Risk Reward

The market needed a correction. I noted this in a previous post. We got it and it may not be done. We may have 3% more downside in the tech index. When the QQQ gets to around $350 its time to get long and prosper. Until then...its chop goes the weasel. There is substantial uncertainty for the market making it difficult to find a solid footing. The showdown in Congress over the debt ceiling, a pending government shutdown that looks to be off the table for now, and a 3.5T spending plan is the political theatre that the markets do not like. Add to that you have ships sitting offshore loaded with goods driving up prices based on supply chain bottlenecks, while the Fed hints at tapering. Just about everything is oversold but the debt ceiling vote may give us a near term bounce, well see if it holds.

Novavax stock price is being victimized by both the broad market and the sector its tied to. Comments from Bourla and Bancel were reckless and damaging. Their shareholders paid the price. Sahin doing damage control on CNBC now. If you own a growth stock with no dividends there are two things that hurt your stock price...sharp increases in interest rates and slowing revenue growth projections.

COVID surge waning on top of reckless comments about being back to normal in 1 year coupled with a spike in yields smashed the sector. It also did not help that the FDA slammed the brakes on BionTechs boosters for the general population. Everyone and their uncle knows that boosters are going to be critical. Breakthroughs are everywhere and they will continue and they suck. Pfizer wanted to be first to the booster show and they accomplished their goal. However their data was spotty and the result was a limited approval for 65+ and high risk. There were politics in the move. Biden has ordered 1B mRNA doses for the world. Now tell me about the logistics of getting cold chain to a remote village in Sudan @ -70 degrees.

Today I read that mRNA booster side effects were similar to second dose. When it comes down to it, and you can get better durability and a milder side effect profile...where will the demand be? Combined with influenza and multiple variants in one shot. Work with me here. 1.5B flu shots globally per annum. Do you think that there may be even more demand for a more deadly coronavirus shot that has touched everyone in the world over the past 2 years? These wont be $3 dosesmore like $30-$40.

Cantors fireside was excellent. You can see their confidence growing. They have moved from radio silence until we get this figured out, to selling the differentiated brilliantly designed platform, and reassuring investors that its just a matter of time to get the product tested, and final packages submitted. This company is likely going to be a player in this space for years to come. Thats why institutions own half the float pre-approval.

Will there be another surge...who knows? Will there be a more fit variant in the coming months...who knows?

Look at the data from yesterday. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

This is after 6B doses administered.

US is 55% fully vaccinated and we lost 2000+ lives yesterday. 12,000/week. Stadiums are packed.

UK 63% fully vaccinated and they are stubbornly over 30,000 cases a day.

Russia has had 800 deaths a day for months.


Lot of work left to do here. The world wants a protein vaccine. SNY/GSK is coming and it is a risk that I am monitoring.

Acquisition probability is < 20%. Not on my radar.

Trizzino said they are in conversations about purchases into 2023. I keep repeating that because its significant and under appreciated.

Sounds from the comments as though FDA is still standing firm on CMC review. They will likely have the package ready around the same time as the other regulatory agencies, but the FDA needs fine tooth comb time before they can file. December US EUA looks to be the expectation.

From a technical perspective NVAX is oversold and has major support at $198 which we reached today.
Its trading at 1 times 2022 expected revenue. The market has Novavax tethered to 10% of MRNA's valuation. Sad but true.

You saw the price reactions to APA and filings. Its a powder keg, but there is still a cloud of uncertainty that must clear to unlock the value.

I wont make price predictions, other than this current price is insultingly low at this stage in the process with the data available and I am asking myself while I type this why I haven't doubled my position here? I will likely start adding to my position tomorrow. If we drift again today, I'm going to hold my nose and take a big bite, and hope I don't get sick.

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Msg # Subject Author Recs Date Posted
143791 Re: Risk Reward BillyT 0 9/30/2021 8:26:52 AM

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