Hi Traderjack -
Am wondering why you like Barrick Gold.
I did a quick analysis covering the last five years and specifically do NOT like GOLD. Am leaving it out of my precious metal buys which include NEM WPM FNV and GFI (merging with AUY). I also note that Buffet went into GOLD and then took a look and got out...so that is not giving me confidence either.
Below I will share my analysis of the bigger miners covering the last five years.
What I did was look at the total return from investing in the above fiver miners - NEM GOLD WPM FNV GFI - taking the stock price five years ago and comparing it today - and adding in dividends which I got from yah finance - to look at the total return. You can see these total returns in the stocks below. Note that these are approximate please do you your own analysis and of course this is not investment advice am just sharing ideas to exchange.
|NEM || ||GFI || ||WPM || ||FNV || ||GOLD |
|185% || ||257% || ||186% || ||180% || ||110% |
Gold prices - eyeballing the chart - went from around 1250 five years ago to around 1800 over the last two years so we would expect some upside for all of these gold miners - and by looking at five years of performance total return am hoping that the effect of hedges will be minor.
So I was surprised the the lackluster performance of GOLD and this is with gold prices rising. Now I am of course missing a lot in this analysis if anybody has another view or opinion on why GOLD has good management and they are making the right calls in finding more gold and mining it efficiently let me know...I have nothing personal against GOLD other than the above...but it is a problem for me to think that the shares have gone nowhere when gold goes from 1250 to 1800...of course maybe they have made changes and as always past performance does not indicate future performance but it does make me wonder. The only thing I like about Barrick Gold is that they got the ticker GOLD.
Another quick analysis I did was Vaneck Junior Gold Miners GDXJ and it performed badly over five years. So am going to stay away from junior miners. OK maybe buy one or two but generally stick with majors they make up most of the big mining ETF GDX anyway. GDX is up some over five years.