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Msg  244419 of 249794  at  10/9/2021 1:01:56 PM  by


Gold Price Forecasts

My Comment - The PM community is as divided as the political parties. I am reading gold forecasts that are so far apart that some of them appear absurd and farcical.
With two glaring exceptions the majority of commodities are at higher levels, I think the second opinion below is the more reasonable forecast even if it is coming out of KWN. Alistair Macleod cited John Ing's article in his latest podcast.

First Opinion - ABN Amro

XAU/USD to extend its declining trend due to three reasons - ABN Amro
Gold (XAU/USD) has declined by 7.5% so far this year. Strategists at ABN Amro think that the gold price outlook remains negative. Therefore, they keep the XAU/USD year-end forecast at $1,700 per ounce and end of 2022 at $1,500 per ounce.

1. Monetary Policy will tighten globally going forward
2. US 2y real yields to pick up
3. The US dollar to rally a bit further
Second Opinion - John Ing

Man Connected in China At The Highest Levels Says Price Of Gold To Reverse Higher, Will Surge $450

Never in history has there been so much money spent in so short a time, dwarfing the money spent after the last global financial crisis in 2008.

A look back at history shows that rising inflation can easily morph into hyperinflation. Lessons can be learned from the way hyperinflation developed in Germany, Austria, Hungary or Venezuela today. The common denominators?

* Reckless fiscal policy
* Deficit spending as each country ran enormous budget deficit financed by themselves.
* Double digit then triple digit increases in money supply.
* Government financed debt.

History shows that the consequences of higher inflation is higher interest rates, an outcome even more likely due to the deterioration of US government finances. Persistent growth in money and credit in the 1970s saw the price of goods and services go up to double digit levels – so did rates to stop inflation. Today, such growth has seen the prices of financial assets go up, and up. Today it is called a bull market. Another outcome of higher inflation though is much higher gold prices. While gold has lost seven percent this year and the broad markets post daily highs, inflation is rising. Gold is set to rise, it is a classic hedge against inflation. As such we continue to believe that gold will hit $2,200 as an interim target.

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