Truist - EXEL: TRIAL UPDATE: EXEL May Be Losing '776 Patent (As Expected), But We Reiterate Cabo IP | EXEL Message Board Posts


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Msg  28891 of 29067  at  5/20/2022 10:01:40 AM  by

JBWIN


Truist - EXEL: TRIAL UPDATE: EXEL May Be Losing '776 Patent (As Expected), But We Reiterate Cabo IP >'30 (Buy PT 35)

 

Key take: Our expert call anticipated EXEL will lose the '776 polymorph patent, but thought EXEL should win in their second wave of IP defence ('439, '440). This should preserve Cabometyx IP to 2030. We encourage investors to buy in this dip.

What we know:

We note a Seeking Alpha article citing trader comments that the Judge on the EXEL vs MSN Pharma (private) "telegraphed" a ruling in favor of MSN on the '776 patent.

The article coincides with EXEL's stock move.

We know this "telegraph" comment is getting airplay in investor/trader chat rooms.

Closing arguments are at 2pm today. Verdict for this trial is expected ~ November.

Recall: Trial for Wave 2 of EXEL's Cabo IP ('439, '440) will commence in May next year, and we expect a verdict in/by 3Q23. Our experts tell us that EXEL ought to win on wave 2, which will protect Cabometyx to 2030.

 

THE VERDICT: Based on feedback from experts on our call earlier today, we believe EXEL has favorable odds of extending Cabometyx's exclusivity to 2030, which is upside to what we think is currently baked into the share price. However, the road to get there may extend the MSN litigation overhang into mid-2023, potentially tempering upswings from positive readouts of Cabometyx's extensive clinical & regulatory catalysts over the next 12 months. Still, we remain positive on this name, and believe patient investors will ultimately be rewarded.

 


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