SeekingAlpha 19May2022 Article "Exelixis drops quickly on day four of Cabometyx patent trial" (I fi | EXEL Message Board Posts


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Msg  28880 of 29067  at  5/19/2022 12:29:41 PM  by

twodogs


 In response to msg 28879 by  JBWIN
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Re: SeekingAlpha 19May2022 Article "Exelixis drops quickly on day four of Cabometyx patent trial" (I find reaction a bit bizarre, since the expectations were EXEL wins CoM and EXEL was a longshot to invalidate MSN's polymorph)

and analysts projected:

What may be baked into the stock at current levels?

Modeling a scenario where MSN enters in 2026, and aggressively claws away volumes (40% Gx erosion for FY26, 80% yearly for FY27-30) takes us to $19/sh. Coincidentally, this is around where the stock is trading today, which we think reflects the bearish sentiment that Cabo loses IP in 2026. As a result, we think the risk/reward is skewed positive while a November verdict where EXEL wins on the '776 patent has just 25% probability, a win on '439/'440 in 3Q23 could lift the overhang and (finally) unshackle the stock, in our estimation.


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