Re: SeekingAlpha 19May2022 Article "Exelixis drops quickly on day four of Cabometyx patent trial" (I find reaction a bit bizarre, since the expectations were EXEL wins CoM and EXEL was a longshot to invalidate MSN's polymorph)
and analysts projected:
What may be baked into the stock at current levels?
Modeling a scenario where MSN enters in 2026, and aggressively claws away volumes (40% Gx erosion for FY26, 80% yearly for FY27-30) takes us to $19/sh. Coincidentally, this is around where the stock is trading today, which we think reflects the bearish sentiment that Cabo loses IP in 2026. As a result, we think the risk/reward is skewed positive — while a November verdict where EXEL wins on the '776 patent has just 25% probability, a win on '439/'440 in 3Q23 could lift the overhang and (finally) unshackle the stock, in our estimation.
