Re: Anavex's Phase 2b/3 Alzheimer's Trial ... The Way Forward.
Exactly a day after this press release - which indicates how we will justify our FDA submission - came out we descended from $8 to $5. That took 5 weeks on so-so volume. Volume picked up a lot at the very bottom (2-3 days). Then the rise.
In my opinion the Sept. 16 press release was the sign that we had something going on. Smart guys realized they wanted in - but at a discount, of course! So they spent 5 weeks crashing the stock. Not hard with this crazy company!
Now that that fun stuff is over with (hopefully), Chris will do his best to pile on some good news developments. I'm guessing Rett top line from the recent trial and an actual submission....or a believable statement of intent to file shortly. Something tat shows were done on the trials of 2-73 and are going to submit. For Rett first and then AD. The peer reviewed AD article I still see coming around March of next year. Around the time Rett may get approved and the moment we submit for AD approval.
I think we are transitioning now to 3-71 trials. I think the postponed Australian Parkinson's trial that others are doing for us has been modified from testing 2-73 to now testing next generation 3-71. Similarly for Fragile X forthcoming (supposedly) trial and anything else we decide to use 3-71 for. I suppose we (or a partner by then) will eventually have to trial 3-71 in AD and even Rett. Especially if it seems to increase efficacy by a factor of 10 or more!
At some point over the next 8 months - if 2-73 gets approval and AD approval is pending - we'll have to look to partner 2-73 for AD ... and if perhaps that partner wants to test it in other things, that's up to them. If by next summer we get more good data on 3-71, say from the PD trial in Australia, or maybe a quick Fragile X trial or from somewhere or other, then we can partner 3-71 for anything and/or everything.... Or, I suppose, that moment may end up being the buy-out.
This is how I see things going if the FDA judges our science to be doing what it's cracked up to do. Good top line Rett data soon and a submission shortly afterwards will set the stage and be sufficient "tell" to move the stock nicely. hen e see what happens next.