Re: If this company's future is so bright...
I understand the sentiment, but it reminds me of the apocryphal quote by Charles Holland Duell, commissioner of the U.S. Patent Office, back in 1899: "Everything that can be invented has already been invented".
Back in 2015 I began investing in EXEL because after seeking a biotech company that I thought had some promise, but that everyone else hadn't figured out yet, I found a group of very smart people on the Yahoo message board that were discussing the promise of their product. The 'big boys' hadn't started scooping it up yet, and it had a share price in the high three dollar range. They did not 'know' that the RCC trial with Cabozantinib would be successful, but the expertise that those posters showed indicated to me that there was a good chance - one was very knowledgeable in the FDA approval process, one was very knowledgeable about the good management teams in biotech, one knew small molecule development, and one was just a smart guy who did a lot of reading and research. There were others, but it was a very informative group.
They got tired of the noise on Yahoo and moved to this site. I only tell this story because the idea that the 'smart' people all work for large institutions or will all be of the same mindset and know what is good or not is a fallacious one, in my opinion.
That said, Alzheimer's treatments seem to have a long history of failure, so the 'smart' people are very wary. Those who manage big funds seem to be actually more risk averse than you might think - their bosses (and clients) certainly will not look favorably on someone who makes a bad bet. Probably it is better to wait and catch the train later on down the tracks than to try to catch it too early and risk losing money.
Anyway, that's how I see it, whether it makes sense or not. My son is a PhD student who did an internship (and had his name included on the paper) on Tau Hyperphosphorylation as a result of concussion, and worked on a protein that was supposed to minimize the effects. He looked at the AVXL trials and related papers and said "They look like they are on the right track, but there is a lot we don't know about how these things work". There is a poster with a screen name of Doc on the Yahoo boards that has posted some very interesting information. I ignore the hype and cut/paste artists who simply repeat press releases. I make my best effort to recognize and understand the arguments from those who seem to actually be in the know - whether it is pro or con.
So, bottom line... big risk, because so far nobody has cracked the code. There are some signs that AV2-73 could be very beneficial for AD patients if taken early. But, since we are still a ways away from knowing, the 'smart' money will likely invest in more sure things and wait for more certainty.
I probably said too much, but those are the thoughts rattling around in my brain.