As you said "who knows with USPTO"
With the disclaimer that past is not necessarily a perfect predictor of the future, "Final Rejection" by USPTO does not mean what that in plain english suggestes -- that it is dead.
For example the most recent patent that CORT got and added to the Orange book (third one that was not part of the complaint against TEVA) got a "Final Rejection" by USPTO in Oct 2017 but then after "Request for continued examination" got allowance (CORT gets the patent) in Feb 2018. Blow by blow from USPTO Pairs database is below.
Point I am making is that with Patent issuance / Hatch-Waxman / ANDA it is not over until its over. There will be lots of back and forth and CORT has a multi-layered approach to fend off TEVA. Seems IMHO that the market as it often does over-reacts both up and down. So if one has the stomach for a rough ride this can create good opportunities.
We know what the worst case is -- CORT ends up with 1/2 of Kormlyn sales starting in 2-H 2019 -- that means a decline in share until when/if successor drug Recorliant gets to market (about 2021/22). Now the question is how much can CORT though patent litigation / new orange book patent delay Kormlyn beyond 2019 to bridge the gap.....
15/133,791 | OPTIMIZING MIFEPRISTONE LEVELS FOR CUSHING'S PATIENTS | 085178-1006972-008610US |