The 3rd version of the TRAIA Revenue Projection spreadsheet is underway due to new information. The current version assumes that a patient is imaged once. In my calculations, I used market penetrations of 3%, 8%, 15%, and 25% meaning that, for example, in the 4th year on the market, 25% of a rheumatologist's patients would be scanned 1 time.
During Jed Latkin's presentation on 9/9/19, he said that on Day 1, an RA patient would be scanned. This provides a baseline of the disease level plus identifies the 30% of RA patients who are not going to benefit from anti-TNF drugs. At 5 weeks, the RA patient is scanned again to determine if the anti-TNF drug is working. Then the follow-up scan is done at 6 months and every 6 months thereafter. The follow-up is necessary because sometimes the anti-TNF drugs stop working.
If you are the insurance company paying for Humira or Remicade, you probably are interested in knowing if it's working. Will insurance companies paying for these very expensive drugs require a TRAIA image?
If in the first year on the market, 3% is an accurate market penetration (that is, out of 100 RA patients in a rheumatologist's practice, 3 are imaged), it's not just one scan but possibly 4 scans ( Day 1, 5 weeks, 6 months, 12 months). Subject to discussion is whether the 6-month follow-up scan is 6 months from Day 1, or 6 months after the 5-week scan.
Anyhoo, based on Jed's comments, the spreadsheet is significantly understating the revenue from TRAIA.