Revised Revenue Projection TRAIA | NAVB Message Board Posts

Navidea Biopharmaceuticals, Inc.

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Msg  30513 of 31047  at  8/23/2019 5:39:39 PM  by

z3peru


Revised Revenue Projection TRAIA

To those who offered their input, thanks.  I assumed a 4-year trend of market penetration of 3%, 8%, 15%, and 25%.  The data reflects the company's information that the expanded label offers double the opportunity of the initial label. The partner will handle manufacturing.  I ran a royalty rate of 18%  because 1) sales to specialists are cheaper; 2) a partner already in the rheumatology space will not have to hire a new sales force; 3) because TRAIA (tilmanocept rheumatoid arthritis imaging agent) is closely related to an FDA-approved product currently on the market, it has been partially de-risked.  Funds are transferred from partner to biotech firm by upfront payment, development milestones, sales milestones, and royalties. I used $500 as the gross sale amount per patient encounter.
 
It has been mentioned that revenues in Europe are going to be less than the U.S. because it's the government who is actually buying.  I did lower the gross sale amount per patient encounter to $425.  I don't really see how they can refuse to pay that since the trial and error method of anti-ANF drugs costs $5,000 per month.
 
Projected Revenues from Tilmanocept Rheumatoid Arthritis Imaging Agent
Shares outstanding Aug. 1, 2019 --18 million
%MP20192020202120222023202420252026202720282029 Partner's Share
Upfront/Milestones
Option to sell TRAIA under initial label* 25,000,000
Phase III results are positive 15,000,000
FDA accepts NDA 15,000,000
FDA appoves NDA for TRAIA 50,000,000
Expanded label ## 75,000,000
Sales Milestone (on reaching $ gross annual sales 50,000,000 50,000,000
Royalties--18%
Initial Label; 1,000,000 US RA pts on ATNF's
1,000,00030.03 2,700,000 $12,300,000
0.1880.08 7,200,000 $32,800,000
$500150.15 13,500,000 $61,500,000
250.25 22,500,000 $102,500,000
Expanded label 45,000,000 45,000,000 45,000,000 45,000,000 $820,000,000
225,900,000 $1,029,100,000
Western Europe; 1,100,000 pts w/ RA on ATNF's **
Option to sell TRAIA in W. Europe *** 30,000,000
Appoval in Europe 20,000,000
1100000.0030.03 2,524,500
0.1880.08 6,732,000
$425150.15 12,622,500
250.25 21,037,500
Expanded label 42,075,000 42,075,000
1st World Countries: 1,700,000 pts w/RA on ATNF's ****
Option to sell TRAIA--deals with 6 companies 35,000,000
Approval in country 25,000,000
1,700,00030.03 3,901,500
0.1880.08 10,404,000
$425150.15 19,507,500
250.25 32,512,500
Expanded label 65,025,000
ROW *****
Option and FDA approval 10,000,000
1st 1,000,000
2nd 2,500,000
3rd 6,000,000
4th 10,000,000
Expanded label 20,000,000 20,000,000
Total 25,000,000
30,000,000 92,700,000 42,200,000 62,024,500 110,633,500 74,026,500 95,545,000 139,587,500 448,000,000
TRAIA is Tilmanocept Rheumatoid Arthritis Imaging Agent
Initial Label = RA patients in U.S. receiving anti-TNF drugs (Enbrel, Humira, Simponi, Remicade) est'd to be 1,000,000 people
* Upfont payment occus in 4Q19 when interim looks at Phase 2 arms occur
MP is maket penetation
ATNF's is anti-TNF-drugs
** W Europe pop is 375 M cf. US pop 330 M; $425 per pt encounter
*** Option paid as of FDA appoval
**** Japan, Canada, Austalia, New Zealand, India--top 10%, South Korea. Pop is 444 M; $425 per pt encounter
***** Rest of World--E Europe, Russia, China, Africa, SE Asia,
## Expanded label includes Initial label, RA pts under any treatment, pre-Rx/post Rx/monitor scans
### Assume use will top out at 25% because not every patient will be scanned every year.
 


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Replies
Msg # Subject Author Recs Date Posted
30539 Re: Revised Revenue Projection TRAIA z3peru 9 9/2/2019 3:28:24 PM
30652 Re: Revised Revenue Projection TRAIA z3peru 4 9/20/2019 2:45:25 PM


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