I don't have any problems with your premises, but how do you get from your premises to your conclusion, which is a short term run? (Except on a partnership announcement, which will pop and drop.) I'm not seeing how results from the phase IIb will result in anything.
Also, when you say a 'short term run' do you mean like a pop and drop on one of your premises, or just an increase in share price over the next six months?
For me, I see the overall trend continuing soon, which is simply down. I don't see any pop and drop catalysts coming soon, either, except for a possible partnership, which will be no earlier--my opinion--than late December, early 2020.