StockVestor99: what price will Cardinal be selling Lymphoseek
for in 9 years? If you don't know that, how can you project how many
procedures Cardinal will have to sell to reach the milestone? WHIZ?
You sound like a 7th grade algebra teacher telling the class 'if you don't show all the steps you will not get credit for your answer'. Sorry, I'm not here to spoon feed you. Those that actually know something about the product and the number of breast, melanoma and H&N dissections done annually might have appreciated the rhetorical sarcasm: the answer is that Lymphoseek sales would have to exceed 100% of market share (using current pricing). But your point is so obvious as to be silly: of course no one knows what the price of Seek will be in 9 years or even if any Seek will be sold by CAH in 9 years. BTW, you assumed milestone payout D would be in the 9th year - I didn't say that. That's your prediction.
As money said, studies are underway that might expand the market to include other indications, and much of the current potential market has not been reached. I don't know if it helps us or hurts us that CAH also distributes other lymph node imaging agents ie Tc-99m sulfur colloid. Head to head studies shows Lymphoseek to be superior to their other products, so much so I don't know how they can not recommend Seek to the hospitals re-ordering sulfur colloid etc.