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Msg  5604 of 5640  at  2/4/2023 12:10:50 AM  by

gr0operator


 In response to msg 5603 by  AZWarrior
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Re: Camera controller versions

AZ,

I have to agree with John. I have tried to figure this one out and get no where. The slide shows 40 cent to 70 cents. So does that mean G 1 was 35 mod 1 was 55 and mod 2 65-70. I think that I have been short on ASP for the high end iPhones this past year. I am working on my next article and plan to attack it. But 1.8 for the codec 50 cent for the amps and 60 cents for the haptics, a buck for power control and CLC ? Donít know but if there are two CLCs at the high end that equals 1.4 a lot higher than I was figuring. IDC was very sure that Apple sold 75 million phones in December. The Apple report kind of supports that concept.

Kuo kept reporting that Apple wonít cut Dec for arts from vendors but they would drastically cut March to out inventories back in line. They did just ask QRVO and CRUS. Just look at the March guide on both. Pretty weak weak and weak. So trying to figure out the real ASP isnít an easy task but I am certain that I am low.

I was also really surprise that new Haptics wins wasnít discussed. Itís another buck.

It appears that the high end ASP is near 6 bucks not 5 like I thought. This makes the 15 7 bucks plus. The 16 with new codec 8-9 bucks and if the fasting charging plus sensor gets in ASP will be right at 10 bucks. I would be really short on revenue projection if this the case. And then the tablet ASP could also head through the roof 8-10. I donít know about MACs. That doesnít seem to be an area of much success.

Did you know notice the new SAM number now almost 7.5 billion. Each quarter that number gets an update. Always higher. It seems that Cirrus is heading for 5-6 billion a lot higher than I was figuring.

Now the hard part really hard part. I have a pretty good idea of what 2026 revenue will be etc. but what about this year. When you listen to the QRVO call they try to claim that business will be back to normal in Sept but then they really back off claiming they really donít know. What they believe is June will easily as weak as March that is wha their customers are pointing at now.

BTW 5 billion revenue equals about 35 bucks in earnings at 50 million shares down just 4 million from this last report.

So Nel gets to ask how many shares is too little. 45 50 40 35. Management has to at somepoint soon end the practice. So do they set on cash and get bought out because it has 5 -10 billion cash. Doing a quick count and some math, it looks like Cirrus generates about 700 million this year. Jan through Jan. Not a small amount. A divy has to be coming of some kind 2 years 3 years.

Quite a week, I am shocked of the stock action today with that ugly guide number, but I will take it.

Grade Zero



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Replies
Msg # Subject Author Recs Date Posted
5605 Re: Camera controller versions rjb 3 2/4/2023 9:51:00 AM
5606 Re: Camera controller versions Golfgleneagles 2 2/4/2023 9:52:09 AM
5608 Re: Camera controller versions AZWarrior 1 2/4/2023 9:54:41 PM




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