Re: SNO is 2 weeks away
Jerry,
You're wrong, if the data were released and clearly showed the vaccine wasn't worthy of approval, that would change my mind. When the trial is finally unblinded is up to the company, but clearly can't be before they have an SAP unless they go back to the original criteria for judging the trial. I do believe they know enough to know the original criteria wouldn't gain approval, even though the data would look strong. In fact if they did that, I think they'd still have a shot at approval based on strong survival data, even though it wasn't how the trial was to be judged. Worst case they would have to do an additional trial, but I believe they'd partner to get it done, and from where we are now, that would still be a substantial net positive.
Now perhaps all that Dr. Liau has said is a lie, maybe at this point the nearly 80 patients we believe should be alive is less than 20, while even that might be better than expected, but not sufficiently better. Is Dr. Liau lying, did 60 patients die since the last time we had an exact figure, or is her enthusiasm based on actual observations of what she and the other clinicians have observed.
You can continue to believe that all that's been stated is a lie, but if it's not, what difference does it make if it's revealed at SNO. Certainly SNO would be a great place to present the data, but it cannot happen without a new SAP unless you abandon all efforts to get an SAP that the four regulators agree on, or perhaps as many as four individual SAP's, each agreed on by that regulator. I don't know how difficult it's been to get everyone to agree to precisely the same language, but I suspect that's what is taking so long.
I don't believe the data needs to be any better, but for each month we delay, that median for the top 100 that Dr. Liau has spoken of gets a little longer, perhaps half a month or so longer or more. Until less than 50 people remain alive, that median value should increase, so that fact that it increased makes it certain that 50 were alive when it's last increase was reported. Of course Dr. Liau might be lying about everything. Perhaps she's done a snow job on the organizations who've honored her with awards. Clearly her peers must be wrong if you're right, but maybe your not right.
I didn't say all would be revealed at SNO, or in the quarterly update, but I believe enough will be revealed to sustain some growth in the stock price until the data's been fully presented.
Gary