TPVG was down today while the BDCS was up 0.25%
From KBW...A couple of brief excerpts...
"We are initiating coverage with a Market Perform rating and a $13.00 target price. We are establishing 2018 and 2019 estimates of $1.48 and $1.46. Our target price of $13.00 plus the 11.7% dividend represent an approximately 17% total return."
The existing projections from Yahoo Finance:
Earnings Estimate | Current Qtr. (Mar 2018) | Next Qtr. (Jun 2018) | Current Year (2018) | Next Year (2019) |
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No. of Analysts | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
Avg. Estimate | 0.34 | 0.4 | 1.5 | 1.55 |
Low Estimate | 0.31 | 0.35 | 1.42 | 1.47 |
High Estimate | 0.39 | 0.48 | 1.62 | 1.77 |
Year Ago EPS | 0.5 | 0.55 | 1.61 | 1.50 |
2017 NII was (from Yahoo) $1.61
Message from the context - the KBW projections are lower than the current consensus projection.
also from Yahoo:
Earnings History | 3/30/2017 | 6/29/2017 | 9/29/2017 | 12/30/2017 |
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EPS Est. | 0.47 | 0.32 | 0.24 | 0.32 |
EPS Actual | 0.5 | 0.55 | 0.27 | 0.3 |
Difference | 0.03 | 0.23 | 0.03 | -0.02 |
Surprise % | 6.40% | 71.90% | 12.50% | -6.30% |
Historical NII volatility is high. with a dividend of (4 times $0.36) $1.44 compared to a consensus projection of $1.50 - one would want an NII projection in which you have some faith and confidence. The (1) historical volatility plus (2) the wide spread in current projections - one should not have much confidence in any projection.
"Portfolio concentration remains key concern. TPVG’s top-5 investments constitute 49% of its portfolio.
Quarters where NII was lower than the dividend has the NII in red font.
| Q4-17 | Q3-17 | Q2-17 | Q1-17 | Q4-16 | Q3-16 | Q2-16 | Q1-16 | Q4-15 | Q3-15 | Q2-15 | Q1-15 | Q4-14 | Q3-14 | Q2-14 | Q1-14 |
Interest income | 10.974 | 10.310 | 14.499 | 14.252 | 10.553 | 11.207 | 9.282 | 10.725 | 11.072 | 9.184 | 10.487 | 9.161 | 10.170 | 7.802 | 5.394 | 1.308 |
Other income | 0.131 | 0.109 | 1.183 | .052 | .096 | 1.295 | .123 | .354 | .355 | .061 | 1.119 | .647 | .520 | .056 | .095 | 0 |
Total investment income | 11.105 | 10.419 | 15.682 | 14.304 | 10.649 | 12.502 | 9.405 | 11.079 | 11.427 | 9.245 | 11.606 | 9.808 | 10.690 | 7.858 | 5.489 | 1.308 |
Net investment income | 5.149 | 4.367 | 8.831 | 7.919 | 4.830 | 6.495 | 4.958 | 6.728 | 6.048 | 4.671 | 6.295 | 4.945 | 5.862 | 3.522 | 2.854 | 0.569 |
Investments @ fair value | 0.497 | 0.406 | 0.344 | 0.408 | 0.414 | 0.309 | 0.300 | 0.283 | 0.272 | 0.262 | 0.208 | 0.252 | 0.258 | 0.248 | 0.206 | 0.143 |
Wt Av Share Count | 17.282 | 16.023 | 16.000 | 15.981 | 15.962 | 16.091 | 16.289 | 16.302 | 16.575 | 16.648 | 16.569 | 10.285 | 9.895 | 9.873 | 9.850 | 9.845 |
TII/share | $0.6426 | $0.6502 | $0.9801 | $0.8951 | $0.6671 | $0.7770 | $0.5774 | $0.6796 | $0.6894 | $0.5553 | $0.7005 | $0.9536 | $1.0803 | $0.7959 | $0.5572 | $0.1328 |
NII/share | $0.2979 | $0.2725 | $0.5519 | $0.4955 | $0.2848 | $0.4036 | $0.3044 | $0.4127 | $0.3649 | $0.2806 | $0.3799 | $0.4728 | $0.5924 | $0.3567 | $0.2897 | $0.06 |
Reported Core NII/share |
| $0.27 | $0.552 | $0.496 | $0.303 | $0.404 | $0.304 | $0.413 | $0.360 | $0.290 | $0.380 | $0.450 | $0.570 | $0.380 | $0.290 | $0.090 |
Reg + Spec Div/share | $0.36 | $0.36 | $0.36 | $0.36 | $0.36 | $0.36 | $0.36 | $0.36 | $0.36 | $0.36 | $0.36 | $0.36 | $0.51 | $0.32 | $0.30 | $0.09 |
NAV/share | $13.25 | $13.39 | $13.52 | $13.38 | $13.51 | $13.44 | $13.05 | $13.40 | $14.21 | $14.52 | $14.54 | $14.48 | $14.61 | $14.64 | $14.49 | $14.58 |
NII/TII Ratio | 46.37% | 41.91% | 56.31% | 55.36% | 45.36% | 51.95% | 52.72% | 60.73% | 52.93% | 50.52% | 54.24% | 50.42% | 54.84% | 44.82% | 51.99% |
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# Debt Portfolio Companies | 19 | 19 | 16 | 18 | 19 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 34 | 28 | 28 | 26 | 27 | 23 |
With only 19 companies in which TPVG has investments - portfolio granularity had to be a problem.
The lack of portfolio granularity would logically result in ''churn related income" being lumpy. The last two quarters had low churn related income - resulting in NII being below the dividend.