I think the recent lowering of the bar for success (10% improvement over ipi alone) along with including only ECOG 0-1 patients almost insures a successful outcome. As far as the market is concerned IDRA decided to take their lumps sooner rather than later by making these changes.
If it turns out the ipi alone ORR is truly 11% then Tilso in combo would be a double as it sits or a triple with the new ECOG protocol. On the other hand if the long quoted extrapolated ipi mono numbers in fact prove to be unexpectedly higher in prospective studies then likely Tilso at 30% ORR still makes the greater than 10% improvement grade. Management has been hit hard because we have lost 90% of the value of our investment if you have been here for a few years. That is on them. We are here to make money. I will say they have made very wise moves along the way that at least puts the company in a position to survive. We all have examples of companies that have barely hung on only to become vastly successful.
If Tilso gains traction in a variety of solid tumors and shows well in triple combo (Tilso+ipi+nivo...Tilso+ipi+ido) all this will be worth the battering. After considering this for a few days, with these recent moves, I think IDRA has figured out a way to cover the spread in all directions no matter which way the ORR swings. Taking the hit now in PPS was likely expected but success will now essentially be insured. Now if somehow devastating dilution can be avoided and the Baker's maintain significant interest, this Tilso may have been just set up for success.