ACAD, by far and away. It hasn't been forgotten, but I'd say it's still flying under the radar of biotech investors and watchers.
Its lead drug Nuplazid will see net sales of close to $500 million this year for an indication (Parkinson's psychosis, or PDP) that is almost orphan size.
Nuplazid will be approved later this year for dementia-related psychosis, an indication 10 to 20 times the size of PDP. There is no FDA-approved drug for dementia-related psychosis; Nuplazid will be the first, just as it is the first and only drug approved for PDP.
Unlike ITCI, whose drug Caplyta competes in a very crowded field, ACAD will soon have 2 whole markets without branded competition. Nuplazid is the safest antipsychotic on the market and the first selective serotonin inverse agonist to receive FDA approval.
Any day now we'll learn the results of its phase 3 MDD trial. If the data are good, Nuplazid will be on the market later next year for 3 different indications. Jefferies sees $7 billion peak sales for Nuplazid across indications. I think sales could top $10 billion.
More about ACAD:
-- it has no debt
-- it has an orphan drug, trofinetide, in phase 3 testing for Rett
-- it has collaborations with both Neuren and Vanderbilt University
-- the Baker brothers own nearly 42 million shares, their 2nd largest holding by share count