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Msg  16889 of 16925  at  8/1/2020 7:52:30 PM  by

longusa

The following message was updated on 8/1/2020 7:54:45 PM.

 In response to msg 16866 by  Biotech2050
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Re: Profs Ballard today

Hi Bio2050,
So I would prefer not to change my 'official' estimate, as it is based on what ACAD says about market size: 8m dementia sufferers in US * 30% have psychosis * 50% diagnosed = 1.2m, of which 67% are treated with APs, so 800k available market for Nup. 
 
Back of the envelope for Dr. Ballard's comments changes the estimate of 30% have psychosis to 50%.  This yields 8m * 50% * 50% = 2m, of which 67% = 1.33m available market.
 
Basically ratios the outcome by 50%/30% = 1.67
So Peak Sales Est becomes $12.5B * 1.67 = $20.833B
 
PS: And of course we note that over time, it should be the case that the 50% diagnosed should trend upward, and quite likely usage of APs trends upward as Nup safety becomes more widely known. These trends would increase the estimate for both estimates of psychosis instances.
 
 
 


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