Re: Summary of trial results for current trial designs in MDD and Schizophrenia negative symptom
Good morning Biotech,
Considering I too expect ACAD to break 500M in annual sales by 2023 with the steady ramp we’ve been experiencing, I would be ecstatic to see us anywhere at the 10X + sales levels for whatever indication(s) that might include. I have guarded optimism that the FDA will give the green light with the very robust results of the one P3 DRP trial so ACAD can begin selling and marketing in that indication by the end of this year.
I again have guarded optimism that we are in stellar shape to confirmatory positive trials in MDD and Negative symptoms and, to a lesser extent, Retts. Of course ACAD management feels the same way, assuming they’re being transparent. Herein lies the beautiful “problem” we have regarding any potential buyout in the next 24 months: I just don’t see how the two negotiating parties will be able to come to an agreement on ACAD’s value until all of the trial results are in and the bean counters conduct their analysis of future sales and probability of FDA approval. ACAD would, rightfully so, push the numbers you presented while any courting company will be much more cautious with their sales predictions.
I could foresee a future for ACAD where they continue to grow on their own, file for Europe and Japan in 2023 once all the trial results are known and then enter a partnership/royalty deal for ROW sales. I wouldn’t expect that to add much to the ACAD coffers since, as Davis mentioned on Tuesday, sales prices ROW are on 15% of US pricing. If ACAD then gets only a small portion of that via a royalty payment that will not add up to much revenue.
I previously dreamed of a buyout. I’m now quite comfortable with the prospect of ACAD growing organically on their own and entrusting them to drive the business. I really like what I’ve seen from ACAD since Davis took the helm.