UPOD has certainly been the style of Steve Davis. But the difference between 20k and 11k as the current patient count right now means to me one or more of the data points used in the calcs are wrong. Most likely IMO would be that there is substantial use of the discount programs for those inadequately insured or uninsured, thus making the price to be used substantially different than that implied by the WAC and GtN. The other possibility is that the market size is much smaller than 125k - but that would seem too much of a potential black eye and large negative for valuation for them to play games with; so my guess is the discount programs affecting the price.
I agree with you that PDP / DRP should increasingly be captured by ACAD as 1L use of Nup becomes SoC.
$12B is probably in the ballpark of what might be acceptable IMO. That is ~4x the $2.88B, which would probably be possible in 2022 / 2023. However, if in Dec we see efficacy in Schizo negative response, IMO the price goes up. And all revenues / valuations should be multiplied by 1.5 to account for EU. So it also might very well be that $12B is not enough.