Good points, Long. Given that ACAD has revised FY guidance upwards twice already, and given 2Q sales that were close to $12 million higher than most analyst estimates, might UPOD be a significant factor here?
If this chart is accurate
, the highest estimate for 2020 sales is $693.18 million. If this figure is anywhere close to being accurate, Nuplazid sales next year will mirror sales of Seattle Genetics' lead drug Adcetris this year. (SGEN's market cap is about $12 billion.)
Something people are overlooking is that the FDA has admonished doctors that there is only 1 approved drug for PDP (it did this in Sept. last year), and for many years has warned against antipsychotic use in DRP. Scripts will not be written off-label in DRP because they are cheaper than Nuplazid. So unlike the crowded spaces of depression and schizophrenia, the PDP/DRP markets will essentially belong to Acadia.
We've done this before, but DRP calcs are always interesting: e.g., 8% penetration of a 1.2 million market factoring in a modest price cut (Cowen sees it as possible) for a yearly cost of $30,000 yields $2.88 billion in sales, which is about half of ACAD's current market cap.
Lastly, if one of the big pharmas offered $12 billion for the company -- about $82/share -- do you think the Bakers would go for it? An uncertain political climate in the coming years might be one incentive for them to take such a proposal seriously.