Morgan Stanley Highlights - Interesting implication | ACAD Message Board Posts

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Msg  15619 of 15705  at  9/11/2019 8:12:15 PM  by

longusa


 In response to msg 15614 by  good_investor93
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Re: Morgan Stanley Highlights - Interesting implication

There is an interesting implication of the comment on market penetration.  Davis said penetration was "mid to high teens".
 
If we take that to be 16%:
125k * 16% = 20,000
Then revenue expectation for 20k patients, using annual WAC (price) of $36,468 and 80% GtN yields $583m revenue.
 
But guidance is $325m.  And Q2 actual is $83.2m
 
Calcing the other direction:
Q2 revenue / (Q'ly WAC * GtN) = paying patients if full price
83.2m / (9,117 * 83%) = 10,995 patients
11k / 125k = 8.8% penetration
 
So ..... there must be alot of patients getting discounts and/or on free samples.
 
 
 
 


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Msg # Subject Author Recs Date Posted
15620 Re: Morgan Stanley Highlights - Interesting implication good_investor93 11 9/12/2019 1:05:38 AM


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