I have also been tracking these positions
from time to time since a10k contract (1m share) 25/20
put spread was first entered (I interpret the trade as BTO of the 25 and STO of the
20 as the 10k of each were entered the same day - comments are based on this interpretation). The numbers of contracts
of each eventually reached 30k before the Schizo PhIII topline. The number of contracts still in OI are as you state.
My comments:
- Given that only
6k contracts of profits were taken so far on the 25s (when the Schizo PhIII topline hit
the stock down to ~22, the trade had close to 100% gain), IMO most of the
trade was done as a hedge by an investor(s) that are long 2.4m - 3m shares
against bad trial results.
- That the 30k 20's are
still there indicate the trader(s) thinks 20 is a floor to the
pps (trader(s) intend to allow the STOs to expire worthless). At
least for now... will keep watch to see if they get cleared at .1 or .05 (what
I would do if I had made the trade since most of the gain has been seen).
- The 24k 25's still
there are remaining as a hedge for the DRP interim.
- Trader(s) thinks there
is a good chance we see DRP interim decision by Sep 20.