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Options Strategies
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Final Tally for 27 November // Profits Range from 84% to 424%For the short Friday session, 3 new trades were dropped while all others were closed or rolled. Profits abounded. Most of today's rolled trades presume an AMZN pps >3200 for next week, which I view as a very worthwhile thesis. One presumes >3210 and the ones expressly sold for 12/4 expiration presume >3150, >3200, and >3250. Thus...if AMZN gains just $55 next week (to reach $3250), then every rolled position today and every new trade for 12/4 expiration will all be profitable. The vast majority of trades, though, simply presume a 12/4 close > $3200. I also proposed 3 trades for the 4 Dec OPEX, each being the sale of short put spreads. These are listed at the bottom of this post. M1: Sold (10) AMZN 3210/3215 call spreads AND Sold (10) AMZN 3050/3045 put spreads for +2.65 (+26.50) MU = 2.35 (23.50) M1A: Closed (10) AMZN 3050/3045 put spreads AND Sold (10) AMZN 3150/3145 put spreads for +2.19 (+21.90) M1B: Closed (10) AMZN 3050/3045 put spreads AND Sold (10) AMZN 3200/3190 put spreads for +1.92 (+19.20) M1C: Closed (10) AMZN 3200/3195 put spreads AND Sold (10) AMZN 4 Dec 3200/3195 put spreads for +.89 (+8.90) Closed: $3195.34 Thesis (12/4): >3200 Net Premium: +76.50 ROI =76.5/23.5= +330% Comment: Original thesis was spot on and a double with no additional trades. T1: Sold (10) AMZN 3140/3145 call spreads AND Sold (10) AMZN 3050/3045 put spreads for +2.53 (+25.30) MU = 2.47 (24.70) T1A: Closed (10) AMZN 3050/3045 put spreads AND Sold (10) AMZN 3100/3095 put spreads for +1.08 (+10.80) T1B: Closed (10) AMZN 3140/3145 call spreads AND Sold (10) AMZN 3210/3215 call spreads for -1.93 (-19.30) T1C: Closed (10) AMZN 3100/3095 put spreads AND Sold (10) AMZN 3050/3045 put spreads for +1.63 (+16.30) T1D: Closed (10) AMZN 3050/3045 put spreads AND Sold (10) AMZN 3200/3190 put spreads for +1.92 (+19.20) T1E: Closed (10) AMZN 3200/3195 put spreads AND Sold (10) AMZN 4 Dec 3200/3195 put spreads for +.89 (+8.90) Comment: A fair amount of thesis fixing was required to turn this into a double+. W1: Sold (10) AMZN 3220/3225 call spreads AND Sold (10) AMZN 3150/3145 put spreads for +2.69 (+26.90) MU = 2.31 (23.10) W1A: Closed (10) AMZN 3050/3045 put spreads AND Sold (10) AMZN 3200/3190 put spreads for +1.92 (+19.20) W1B: Closed (10) AMZN 3200/3195 put spreads AND Sold (10) AMZN 4 Dec 3200/3195 put spreads for +.89 (+8.90) Closed: $3195.34 Thesis:(12/4): >3200 Net Premium: +55.00 ROI= 55/23.10 = +238% Comment: Original thesis was correct and returned a double+. W2: Sold (10) AMZN 3150/3145 put spreads for +1.44 (+14.40) MU = 3.56 (35.60) W2A: Closed (10) AMZN 3150/3145 put spreads AND Sold (10) AMZN 3195/3190 put spreads for +1.81 (+18.10) W2B: Sold (10) AMZN 3225/3230 call spreads for +.80 (+8.00) W2A: Closed (10) AMZN 3195/3190 put spreads AND Sold (10) AMZN 4 Dec 3200/3195 put spreads for +.29 (+2.90) Closed: $3195.04 Thesis (12/4): >3200 Net Premium: +43.40 ROI =43.4/35.6= +122% Comment: Just 3 additional trades to turn this 'one-and-done' trade into a double. F1: Sold (10) AMZN 3225/3230 call spreads AND Sold (10) AMZN 3195/3199 put spreads for +2.75 (+27.50) MU = 2.25 (22.50) F1A: Closed (10) AMZN 3195/3190 put spreads AND Sold (10) AMZN 4 Dec 3200/3195 put spreads for +.29 (+2.90) Comment: Original thesis was correct (barely). F2: Sold (10) AMZN 3200/3195 put spreads for +1.27 (+12.70) MU = 3.73 (37.30) F2A: Sold (10) AMZN 3215/3220 call spreads for +.97 (+9.70) F2B: Closed (10) AMZN 3200/3195 put spreads AND Sold (10) AMZN 4 Dec 3200/3195 put spreads for +.89 (+8.90) Closed:$3195.04 Thesis (12/4):>3200 Net Premium: +31.30 ROI = 31.3/37.3= +84% Comment: Original thesis was incorrect as I anticipated a pin at 3200 for the close. F3: Sold (10) AMZN 3210/3215 call spreads AND Sold (10) AMZN 3219/3205 put spreads for +4.28 (+42.80) MU = .72 (7.20) F3A: Closed (10) AMZN 3210/3205 put spreads AND Sold (10) AMZN 4 Dec 3210/3205 put spreads for -1.23 (-12.30) Closed: $3195.04 Thesis (12/4): >3210 Net Premium: +30.50 ROI = 30.5/7.2 = +424% Comment:Would have returned a higher profit had I chosen '3200' as the common short strike. =============================================================== Trades for 4 Dec Expiration: 12/4-1:Sold (50) AMZN 3150/3145 put spreads for +2.84 (+142.00) MU = 2.16 (108.00) Closed at: $3195.34 Thesis: >3150 Net Premium: +142.00 Comment: I believe we'll see AMZN head north of $3200 next week. 12/4-2: Sold (10) AMZN 3200/3190 put spreads for +2.82 (+28.20) MU = 2.18 (21.80) Closed at: $3185.34 Thesis: >3200 Net Premium: +28.20 Comment: Also looking good for next week. 12/4-3: Sold (10) AMZN 3250/3245 put spreads for +3.13 (+31.30) MU = 1.87 (18.70) Closed at: $3185.34 Thesis: >3250 Net Premium: +31.30 Comment: The general thesis is that AMZN will see a gain of at least $55 next week. |
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Msg # | Subject | Author | Recs | Date Posted |
6872 | An Indepth Look at the Juggernaut of AMZN | sandiegodude2000 | 0 | 11/27/2020 2:56:18 PM |