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Msg  131505 of 132040  at  9/24/2021 9:56:14 AM  by

PinewoodsBear

The following message was updated on 9/24/2021 10:18:26 AM.

Risk Management ---> So many risks to keep track on.

Prologue
This is a post from Income Investing (Private) thread. Reposted here to get a wider audience . the main topic was management of risk per your real estate assets and stock portfolio. I expanded the topic wider to consider the risk and history we all share and the future we face. This also edited for improvement.


RISK MANAGEMENT ---> So many risks to keep track on.

Every decade is different from the others past. So what worked then.... rarely is pertinent now.

I repeat what I said the other day ..."The Future is closer than you think "...pleased with byself being Yogi Berra.

But seriously the various elements affecting the markets, politics, economy and foreign self-serving influences playing tug-a-war without anyone getting an advantage has set the stage for disaster. That would be the time honored odds. But today's long running Bull Market is over due..and that has been quoted for a long time also as the market continues to seesaw back and forth ever higher. This is well known with daily headlines and so far the population and market seem to cope well with the chaos . Not enough fear generated to affect the status quo.


Something unforeseen and a complete surprise could easily spook the market and a panic sell off with lots of momentum fueling it could be a sink hole drop, Today China hit the "fake coins" with more bad news to follow up . For those who do not own any of these it is of little concern. But owners of this fad currency it could be really REALLY BAD news. But not enough of the population is involved to cause the overall market to tank. Perhaps a minor ripple and gone after a few days.

The majority alive today have never experience this except for 2008 which was not as bad as what I am saying now. 2008 was over and the market doing well by 2010--2011 . Think of the 1929 crash that was around until the Second World War saved the economy out of the black pits but that was a decade later. The cause and affect of those times are so different from today that it is hard to compare that era to our times. Reading books by candle light with TV unknown by the population. Yeah that could be back in the Middle Ages it seems so strange.

Like the Great Depression...we could see the entire world fall into depression like dominos racing around the globe. Impossible to know if this is in our near future because so many events are now different than before, like our own USA flooding the economy with easy money and zero interest rates. Some of the other countries copycatting us. The trend getting more apparent where robots and high tech take over jobs that humans recently did. One reality why video games from youth to middle age are so important to keep unemployed busy doing nothing, creating nothing, earning nothing as they get older and still not employed and yet very active in front of the video games.

One very simplistic and commonsense thing to do whether we keep climbing upward or dashed down into the black pits ;

Do not invest into any industry that you can live without their products . Only own an industry stock needed by everyone when desperate times hit. You do not need Netflix or Amazon Prime tv or a new car or the four week trips to Hawaii, but you do need really very basic needs like water, food, shelter. Wall Mart and Target clothes are good enough and you can live without that $4,000 Italian Silk Suits.

Such times give birth to the desperate HaveNots to create riot and mayhem fed by despair, anger, and hopelessness and unseen by the Upper Class who become the prime target but any of the middle class will do if they just are doing better than the HaveNots . Gated Community with guards at entry gates just advertise where to riot.

we have so many new risks pop up in dealing with real estate and stock investing that economy risk that affects a wide population that is hurt more by bad times brought by politicians missteps or favoritism and self serving management focusing on more money to get richer. The HaveNots are hurt by fate and the major mistake of being born to poor parents. From that starting point the finger pointing of blame points in all the compass directions..

today seems too far away from this risk. So much so that this should start with "once a upon a time..." and "this cannot happen to me"

Let me note a slim slice of reality here. You have a series of generations using the TV as a baby sitter watching Law and Order type of entertainment where every episode has killing down by guns, automative guns, knives, strangling or arson. In eight hours of watching the kids have seen every kind of way to kill someone who annoys them. One result is the children's are shown how little life is worth and now commonplace killing is done. They see it every day for years and years before adulthood. I guess that it is all OK as long as Starspace Captain Bill chop up the alien with his ray gun.... more scenic bloody guts to splatter ... and done so nonchalantly. So many "How to do it". examples on TV as baby sitter.

So be prepared for dangers and risks dealing with the ever moving stock market selling and buying company's stock. Or where your real estate is and the changing times to that part of the town/city. Living life itself has become more complex than our great grandfathers had to deal with.

Better to be prepared for the worse than to be blissfully ignorant caught by surprise as the crowd knocks down your door. Or a flock of black swans land on your portfolio. Some surprises are not happy events but just dreadfully scary .

Keep tabs on the building of social unrest on the night time news..The trend is already there if you keep watch for it. You can tell about it by the way your friends, fellow workers, and family react very blas with the current massacre news . how often innocent people in the crowd were wounded or killed. Senseless and plane crazy acts .

Many continue to be unconcern or in denial that any of this is real. Safe inside your middle class neighborhood.

Who would of thought a President would encourage his followers to attack the congress ?
Could never happen here like one of the poor third world countries. Right?
Or that after the event on TV close up would still have congressmen supporting the President's miscreants .

Every decade is different and this one is just more different than most.
Risk Management has become wider, bigger, and more important than ever before.

***PinewoodsBear***













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Replies
Msg # Subject Author Recs Date Posted
131507 Re: Risk Management ---> So many risks to keep track on. crackerjack 2 9/25/2021 9:33:44 AM
131508 Re: Risk Management ---> So many risks to keep track on. chuttoo99 11 9/26/2021 6:45:44 AM
131513 Re: Risk Management ---> So many risks to keep track on. > Bear VTJohn 22 9/26/2021 12:23:04 PM


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