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The following message was updated on 6/29/2020 8:04:23 PM.
Off Topic - Health Care / Pharma Stocks 6-26-20
My largest obstacle when I began investing in this sector was in getting my coverage universe right. The sector is not just about ABT, BMY, JNJ, LLY PFE and a view others. If one fails to include Medical Devices and Health Care Plans, then one fails to have a coverage universe that can perform in line with the XLV ETF.. One can find a few REIT-like yields in the sector. But moderate yielding Health Care/Pharma stocks strongly tend to be the ones to avoid.
Health Care / Pharma Stocks 6-26-20
Yield in the spreadsheet below is based on the Q2-20 dividend. Header
abbreviations: Div = dividend; EPS = earnings per share; LTM = last
twelve months; YTD = year to date. Companies that pay dividends less than 4 times per year have had their
annual payouts divided by four and encoded in this data as if they paid a
quarterly dividend. AZN pays two unidentical dividends per year. I take the sum of those dividends
and divide by four. The last four columns measure the percentage change
in the 2018 EPS projection; the change in the price target since the beginning of the year; the change in the
dividend since Q3-18; and the average yearly change in the dividend
since Q3-14. BDX acquired Bard for $317.00 on 12/29/17. AGN acquired by ABBV 5/08/20.
12-30-19
Current
Dividend
Div
Div/
Div/
Percent Change
Company and ticker
Price
Price
/Quarter
Yield
EPS20
EPS21
Price
Pr+Div
EPS20
EPS21
Target
Div_1yr
Div_3yr
Agilent_Technologies
(A)
52.31
85.90
0.180
0.84
23.2%
20.2%
64.21
64.90
-9.09
-6.16
5.85
9.76
10.90
AbbVie Inc.
(ABBV)
88.54
96.13
1.180
4.91
49.5%
45.9%
8.57
11.24
1.28
1.28
4.90
10.28
23.91
AmerisourceBergen_Corp
(ABC)
85.02
99.18
0.420
1.69
22.5%
20.5%
16.65
17.64
-0.93
1.06
8.88
5.00
4.79
Abbott Laboratories
(ABT)
86.86
88.71
0.360
1.62
50.9%
39.2%
2.13
2.96
-21.39
-10.00
28.76
12.50
10.82
Allergan PLC
(AGN)
191.17
193.02
0.740
1.53
18.4%
16.7%
0.97
1.74
-5.18
-1.65
-0.02
0.00
1.88
Amgen Inc.
(AMGN)
241.07
232.84
1.600
2.75
41.1%
37.8%
-3.41
-2.09
-1.33
-2.03
8.24
10.34
11.66
AstraZeneca PLC
(AZN)
49.86
52.70
0.343
2.60
69.9%
55.2%
5.70
7.07
-4.85
-3.40
4.44
-0.00
0.00
Baxter International Inc.
(BAX)
83.62
84.31
0.245
1.16
29.6%
25.7%
0.83
1.41
-11.50
-9.36
3.92
11.36
15.30
Bayer AG
(BAYRY)
20.28
18.65
0.182
3.91
37.1%
32.6%
-8.04
-6.24
-3.90
-7.80
-10.56
0.00
0.00
Becton, Dickinson and Co
(BDX)
271.97
233.57
0.790
1.35
30.3%
25.3%
-14.12
-13.54
-17.04
-11.62
-1.07
2.60
2.67
Bristol_Myers_Squibb_Comp
(BMY)
64.19
57.74
0.450
3.12
29.1%
24.3%
-10.05
-8.65
1.98
2.64
7.97
9.76
4.94
Bruker Corp
(BRKR)
50.97
37.96
0.040
0.42
14.4%
10.1%
-25.52
-25.37
-39.01
-25.27
-21.76
0.00
0.00
Cardinal Health, Inc.
(CAH)
50.58
50.55
0.486
3.85
36.7%
35.2%
-0.06
1.86
5.37
-3.38
13.01
1.04
1.71
Quest Diagnostics
(DGX)
106.79
110.22
0.560
2.03
30.2%
32.2%
3.21
4.26
9.93
-2.37
15.24
5.66
7.59
Gilead Sciences Inc.
(GILD)
64.98
74.57
0.680
3.65
43.0%
42.0%
14.76
16.85
-8.93
1.59
4.76
7.94
9.36
GlaxoSmithKline PLC
(GSK)
46.99
40.55
0.465
4.59
63.5%
62.4%
-13.71
-11.73
-5.18
-8.41
-0.98
-21.19
-0.72
Hill-Rom Holdings
(HRC)
113.53
107.71
0.220
0.82
15.9%
14.6%
-5.13
-4.74
0.54
-17.57
-0.54
4.76
6.96
Johnson & Johnson
(JNJ)
145.87
137.81
1.010
2.93
52.3%
44.6%
-5.53
-4.14
-15.07
-9.68
6.41
6.32
6.34
Eli Lilly and Company
(LLY)
131.43
162.83
0.740
1.82
43.5%
37.4%
23.89
25.02
0.59
1.92
24.18
14.73
12.52
McKesson Corporation
(MCK)
138.32
148.21
0.410
1.11
11.0%
11.4%
7.15
7.74
4.11
-7.66
11.74
5.13
13.75
Medtronic Inc.
(MDT)
113.45
88.77
0.580
2.61
50.5%
64.1%
-21.75
-20.73
-18.04
-42.86
-10.94
7.41
10.59
Merck & Co. Inc.
(MRK)
90.95
75.19
0.610
3.25
46.0%
40.1%
-17.33
-15.99
-5.36
-2.32
-4.75
10.91
9.21
Novo Nordisk A/S
(NVO)
57.88
66.04
0.220
1.33
32.5%
29.1%
14.10
14.86
0.37
-7.06
12.74
-0.59
2.99
Novartis AG
(NVS)
94.69
87.10
0.502
2.30
35.2%
31.9%
-8.02
-6.96
-0.52
-2.96
2.97
8.97
-3.89
Pfizer Inc.
(PFE)
39.18
32.04
0.380
4.74
53.3%
50.3%
-18.22
-16.28
-1.38
9.34
-3.79
5.56
5.90
Perrigo Company PLC
(PRGO)
51.66
53.94
0.225
1.67
22.3%
20.6%
4.41
5.28
-4.04
-2.38
7.89
7.14
12.14
ResMed Inc.
(RMD )
154.97
185.63
0.390
0.84
34.8%
33.9%
19.78
20.29
11.72
2.00
21.41
5.41
5.73
Roche Holding AG
(RHHBY)
40.66
43.90
0.285
2.60
43.3%
41.0%
7.97
9.37
10.04
3.35
14.56
2.43
4.58
Smith & Nephew PLC
(SNN)
48.07
37.62
0.182
1.94
51.0%
34.8%
-21.74
-20.98
-34.10
-9.22
-12.41
4.29
6.36
Sanofi
(SNY)
50.20
50.91
0.425
3.34
50.1%
46.4%
1.41
3.11
-0.29
-2.94
2.50
-5.07
17.81
Steris PLC
(STE)
152.42
148.33
0.370
1.00
26.2%
28.2%
-2.68
-2.20
1.26
-15.62
4.58
8.82
9.74
Stryker Corporation
(SYK)
209.94
173.76
0.575
1.32
36.2%
26.2%
-17.23
-16.69
-29.68
-11.74
-11.96
10.58
10.60
Teva Pharmaceutical Ind
(TEVA)
9.80
12.19
0.000
0.00
0.0%
0.0%
24.39
24.39
5.02
10.88
28.11
NaN
NaN
Teleflex Incorporated
(TFX)
376.44
355.87
0.340
0.38
13.5%
10.0%
-5.46
-5.28
-20.88
-10.56
-2.84
-0.00
0.00
Thermo Fisher Scientific, Inc
(TMO)
324.87
350.95
0.220
0.25
7.1%
6.1%
8.03
8.16
-8.75
-6.10
12.30
15.79
13.63
Zimmer Biomet Holdings, Inc.
(ZBH)
149.68
115.43
0.240
0.83
24.9%
12.7%
-22.88
-22.56
-53.44
-16.41
-11.98
0.00
0.00
Zoetis Inc.
(ZTS)
132.35
132.66
0.200
0.60
23.9%
20.1%
0.23
0.54
-16.46
-14.21
0.22
21.95
24.04
Anthem, Inc.
(ANTM)
302.03
255.65
0.950
1.49
17.1%
15.1%
-15.36
-14.73
-1.81
-3.88
-1.12
18.75
13.60
HCA Healthcare
(HCA)
147.81
92.48
0.430
1.86
27.0%
15.8%
-37.43
-36.85
-45.17
-15.69
-14.28
7.50
7.26
Humana Inc.
(HUM)
366.52
374.64
0.625
0.67
13.4%
11.4%
2.22
2.56
0.21
1.93
18.03
13.64
16.21
United Health
(UNH)
293.98
286.88
1.250
1.74
30.8%
27.2%
-2.42
-1.56
0.74
-2.54
6.14
15.74
18.58
U.S. Physical Therapy
(USPH)
114.35
74.54
0.320
1.72
206.5%
52.0%
-34.81
-34.25
-80.32
-28.25
-34.23
18.52
16.97
Average
2.03
37.1%
29.8%
-1.91
-0.96
-9.77
3.25
NaN
NaN
With the 10 Treasury at 0.636% and the sector average yield on Q4 dividends at 1.98% - the spread is 134 basis points.
The cap weighted ETF XLV has changed -4.27% year to date - with dividends included, its total return is -3.90%.
The yield on the XLV is 1.44% using the sum of LTM dividends - while LTM dividend growth is 12.86%.
Earnings Growth & P/E Ratios
6-26-20
Fiscal and calendar years are not in sync. ABC, AGN,
BDX, CAH, MCK, MDT and PRGO began fiscal 2020 at least one quarter
earlier than calendar 2020. Several stocks sell at valuations based
on their drug pipelines - and short-term growth in EPS fails to capture a
growth picture which is expected to come in 2021 and beyond. BAYRY,
RHHBY and TEVA still lacked 2021 projections - but since I need those
numbers in multiple spreadsheets, I have provided temporary guesstimates
for them.