Having worked in the senior housing industry decades ago, Seniors have always said they would rather stay home. They move when their health/physical capabilities make it advantageous. Not being comfortable driving. Not being able to maintain their home. Feeling less confident in their health etc.

The biggest threat to senior housing is the self driving car. Everyone has been building for the upcoming wave of senior population growth for decades. Easy capital availability causes periodic overbuilding just as it does for other real estate. Tight credit periods result in improved absorption (higher occupancy) just as it does for other real estate.

The biggest threat to senior housing is affordability. The baby boomers saved for retirement. Through weaker earnings, no pensions and lax saving habits as well as lower interest rates(sustainable interest income), following generations are less able to afford quality senior housing. The market depends on seniors with the income to PAY for the services offered. To the extent the income of seniors declines, the market must shrink as quality options require money.