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Msg  12490 of 12568  at  9/20/2019 1:45:50 AM  by

factoids

The following message was updated on 9/22/2019 10:52:54 AM.

Health Care REITs Q3-19


      Yields are calculated on Q3-19 dividends. The Dividend/FFO ratio uses the 2019 FFO projection. The percent change columns measures the changes since the beginning of the year. LTM (last twelve month) dividend growth uses Q3-19 minus Q3-18 dividend/share divided by Q3-18 dividend. LTM FFO growth uses Q3-19 minus Q3-18 normalized FFO/share divided by Q2-18 normalized FFO. LTM FAD growth does not use quarterly numbers - but the 2019 midpoint of the yearly guidance compared to the 2018 actual. VTR had a downward adjustment to its dividend and operating metrics when it spun of CCP. MedEquities Realty Trust (MRT) with a $364 million market cap and 2 projections and Global Medical REIT (GMRE) is smaller ($186 million),
but does have 3 analyst projections - are too new and too small to be currently included in my coverage. UHT with over a billion in market cap still lacks analyst projections.
 


  Share Price  
Div/Div/           Percent Change                 LTM Growth      Last Three Years  
Company_name_and_ticker1-0109-19YieldFFOFADPricePr+Div19 FFOTargetDivFFOFADDivFFOFAD

Community Healthcare Trust(CHCT)28.8343.593.7899.2884.0851.2055.48-11.2319.052.23%15.6%16.0% 2.62 3.07 9.65
CareTrust REIT(CTRE)18.4623.303.8665.6963.3826.2229.880.0022.289.76%3.7%6.8% 10.78 8.18 7.12
Physicians Realty Trust(DOC)16.0317.405.2992.0095.838.5512.85-9.093.750.00%9.1%1.1% 0.74 -0.33 2.62
Welltower Inc.(WELL)69.4189.303.9083.4587.8828.6632.42-1.6512.750.00%-7.8%6.7% 0.39 -2.72 -0.33
Health Care Properties(HCP)27.9335.094.2284.5793.0825.6429.61-1.1311.260.00% -52.7%0.0%  -11.88  -11.89 -12.95
Healthcare Realty Trust Incorporated(HR)28.4433.303.6075.4791.6017.0920.25-2.454.310.00%-7.1%5.6% 0.00 -1.79 -6.04
Healthcare Trust of America, Inc.(HTA)25.3128.764.3876.8384.0013.6317.36-5.201.821.61%-2.5%4.9% 1.67 0.62 1.63
LTC Properties Inc.(LTC)41.6850.194.5474.7576.0020.4224.06-0.97-0.900.00%-7.8%7.5% 1.85 0.00 3.57
Medical Properties Trust Inc.(MPW)16.0818.955.4979.3982.5417.8522.70-7.7516.414.00%0.0%5.9% 4.35 1.05 3.51
National Health Investors(NHI)75.5482.905.0776.6482.689.7413.91-2.140.815.00%8.2%6.3% 5.56 4.18 4.63
Omega Healthcare Investors Inc.(OHI)35.1541.186.4186.5693.9517.1622.79-0.336.850.00%1.1%3.7% 3.33 -2.62 -2.82
Sabra Health Care REIT, Inc.(SBRA)16.4822.468.0196.2677.2536.2944.48-9.66-3.410.00%-9.8%1.3% 2.38 -5.99 1.34
Senior Housing Properties Trust(SNH)11.728.696.9045.4537.50-25.85-22.01-20.96-33.13 -61.54%-6.4%8.1% -20.51 -9.80 -4.03
New Senior Investment Group(SNR)4.126.517.99101.96104.0058.0167.48-15.0022.600.00%-12.1%-5.7% -16.67 -19.73  -17.46
Universal Health Realty Income Trust(UHT)61.37100.972.6982.4280.4764.5367.85-2.370.001.49%-1.3%3.0% 1.54 2.38 3.61
Ventas, Inc.(VTR)58.5972.274.3982.3987.6223.3527.41-1.5315.280.38%1.9%-1.4% 2.88 -2.26 -1.07

Average


5.0381.4582.6224.5329.16-5.726.23-2.32%-4.2%4.4%

The cap weighted Dow Jones REIT ETF RWR has a price change of 21.36% year to date - with dividends its total return is 21.99%.
The cap weighted Vanguard ETF VNQ has a price change of 25.32% year to date - with dividends its total return is 26.14%.
The Cohen & Steers 'Realty Majors' ETF ICF has a price change of 16.84% year to date - with dividends its total return is 17.55%.

    Dividend dates are:
CHCT: 5-30-19   CTRE: 7-14-19   DOC: 7-01-19   WEll: 5-27-19   HCP: 8-19-19   HR  : 5-29-19   HTA: 10-09-19  LTC: monthly   
MPW: 07-10-19  NHI: 8-08-19  OHI: 8-14-19SBRA: 5-30-19 SNH: 8-14-19 SNR: 7-20-19 UHT: 7-01-19 VTR: 07-11-19
Historical sector average yields:
Mar 2005: 6.99%June: 6.09% Sept: 6.22% Dec: 6.73%
Mar 2006: 6.18%June: 6.79% Sept: 5.85% Dec: 5.28%
Mar 2007: 5.33%June: 6.24% Sept: 5.90% Dec: 5.77%
Mar 2008: 5.84%June: 6.33% Sept: 5.25% Dec: 6.89%
Mar 2009: 9.11%June: 7.88% Sept: 6.67% Dec: 6.31%
Mar 2010: 6.67%June: 6.09% Sept: 5.62% Dec: 5.75%
Mar 2011: 5.48%     June: 5.64%     Sept: 6.02%     Dec: 5.34%
Mar 2012: 5.16%June: 4.84% Sept: 4.89% Dec: 4.69%
Mar 2013: 4.66%June: 5.09% Sept: 5.49%Dec: 6.02%
Mar 2014: 5.63%June: 5.37% Sept: 5.77%Dec: 4.99%
Mar 2015: 4.86%June: 5.84% Sept: 6.05%Dec: 6.02%
Mar 2016: 5.92%June: 5.51% Sept: 5.46%Dec: 5.99%
Mar 2017: 5.92%June: 5.51% Sept: 5.46%Dec: 6.27%
Mar 2018: 7.06%June: 6.42% Sept: 5.94%Dec: 6.65%
Mar 2019: 6.43%June: 5.36% Sept: Dec:
 
 
   While my non-cap weighted sector average YTD total return of 29.16% is clearly beating the sector average return of 21.99% for the RWR - that average is skewed by returns of 55.48% for CHCT,  67.48% for SNR and 67.85% for UHT. SNR and UHT are both benefiting from major dead cat bounces from bad performances in 2018. CHCT appears to benefit from a run away (from logic) valuation. The forward FFO projections imply strong earnings growth is about to begin. Put in different words - the valuation could only be justified by using FFO projections that are too high to believe.
   The sector average Price/FFO of 17.56 is well above the historical average - and thus is a loud warning signal that the sector is over valued. But that valuation signal is heavily due to over valuations for only CHCT and UHT.
 
Health Care Price/FFO Ratios 09-19
The UHT projected 2019 FFO stat is slightly under four times Q1-19 FFO.

                FFO / Share                   % FFO Growth         Price/FFO         19 FFO Range    
Co.20162017201820192020202117-1618-1919-20201820192020HighLowRange
CHCT1.521.481.601.661.992.31 8.11 3.7519.88 27.24 26.26 21.901671632.41%
CTRE1.101.161.281.371.501.57 10.34 7.039.49 18.20 17.01 15.531391352.92%
DOC1.011.051.091.001.091.08 3.81 -8.269.00 15.96 17.40 15.96105978.00%
WELL4.544.244.054.174.334.61 -4.48 2.963.84 22.05 21.41 20.624204131.68%
HCP2.721.941.821.751.821.88 -6.19 -3.854.00 19.28 20.05 19.281771732.29%
HR1.681.561.581.591.651.71 1.28 0.633.77 21.08 20.94 20.181611563.14%
HTA1.611.651.671.641.701.74 1.21 -1.803.66 17.22 17.54 16.921651631.22%
LTC3.053.083.043.053.090.00 -1.30 0.331.31 16.51 16.46 16.243113022.95%
MPW1.271.321.371.311.581.61 3.79 -4.3820.61 13.83 14.47 11.991321292.29%
NHI4.875.265.515.485.685.85 4.75 -0.543.65 15.05 15.13 14.605505460.73%
OHI3.313.212.983.053.233.27 -7.17 2.355.90 13.82 13.50 12.753073040.98%
SBRA2.282.472.301.871.901.89 -6.88 -18.701.60 9.77 12.01 11.821881851.60%
SNH1.871.781.541.321.191.66
 -13.48  -14.29-9.85 5.64 6.58 7.301411345.30%
SNR1.251.120.600.510.670.00 -46.43 -15.00 31.37 10.85 12.76 9.72544811.76%
UHT3.083.113.283.303.483.58 5.47 0.615.45 30.78  30.60  29.013383380.00%
VTR4.134.154.063.853.944.09 -2.17 -5.172.34 17.80 18.77 18.343953803.90%
Average




-3.08-3.397.2517.1917.5616.39
 
Historical Price/FFO ratios for the sector:
Mar 2007: 15.23 June: 13.19 Sept: 14.18 Dec: 14.55
Mar 2008: 14.17 June: 13.27 Sept: 15.95 Dec: 12.38
Mar 2009: 9.42 June: 10.84 Sept: 12.61 Dec: 13.90
Mar 2010: 12.61 June: 14.10 Sept: 15.45 Dec: 15.41
Mar 2011: 15.07   June: 14.62    Sept: 12.91    Dec: 14.95
Mar 2012: 14.21 June: 15.25 Sept: 15.05 Dec: 15.82
Mar 2013: 17.18 June: 15.84 Sept: 15.21 Dec: 16.67
Mar 2014: 13.92 June: 14.73Sept: 14.10 Dec: 16.66
Mar 2015: 17.56 June: 13.40Sept: 13.26 Dec: 13.73
Mar 2016: 13.68 June: 15.04Sept: 15.53 Dec: 13.66
Mar 2017: 14.14 June: 14.89Sept: 14.95 Dec: 14.32
Mar 2018: 12.24 June: 14.06Sept: 14.37 Dec: 13.66
Mar 2019: 15.64 June: 17.51Sept: Dec:
 
The new additions AVIV and DOC skewed the sector average higher in 2013. For example - without those two, the December ending average would have been 14.07.
The deletion of SNF or low valuation CCP took the sector average Price/FFO ratio from 14.73 to 15.16. The addition of high MOB or high valuation CHCT took the sector average Price/FFO ratio from 15.16 to 15.28.
At the end of Q4-18 SNR's ratio was 5.87 At the end of Q2-19 SNR's ratio was 29.87.
At the end of Q4-18 CHCT's ratio was 18.02 At the end of Q2-19 CHCT's ratio was 23.18. 
 
 
 
 
 


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