With the high porosity rock dipping into the liquids window, along with the oil find in Antelope-1 I place a high probability on a commercial oil find. That being said, at 5000 bpd with a 50 netback the company makes another 91m a year. Also, note that in an article Phil said 24 months until condesate CF starts, but with an oil find CF would begin in 9 months. Such a find would eliminate the need for any equity offerings (which could happen if crack spreads don't improve, but the decrease in revenue caused by such would likely be offset by increased capacity utilization of the refinery due to increased economic activiy in PNG) and allow them to accelerate the exploration of their 4m acres. So overall, I would say that 5000bpd find, which I believe is likely, would greatly improve IOC's position. Also, an oil find may make the difference of whether they let Misui Chem finance the stripping plant or they decide to finance it.