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Msg  3362 of 13357  at  11/18/2009 4:36:47 PM  by

sltibbs


 In response to msg by  us2u001
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Re: From Ray Jay/Sltibbs

<<If DCF was all that mattered the stock market would just calculate the price and tell us what to pay.>>
 
First, let me say that I don't think we really disagree much past semantics. that being said ...
 
The true value of any investment is the PV of the future CFs. The problem is that what those future CFs actually turn out to be, and what the market expects them to be, will almost always be very different.
 
If I can find a stock that is trading significantly below its conservatively calculated fair value (based on DCF), then I am happy to buy it. Of course, I don't know the CFs that IOC will experience, but I know there are (at least) three legs: 1) NG, 2) Condensate, and 3) Oil 
 
1) NG CF is way out in the future, but someday will generate significant CFs (at 0.38/mcf valuation, relative to AGL/Nippon valuation of 2.22/mcf which has less advantageous economics, this can be very profitable even if we have to wait several years).
2) Engineering report place 9000 bcpd condensate stripping plant at 700m to 1100m in NPV @ 10% (which is DCF - Initial Cost). They will be able to generate at least twice that, so double the NPV (which based on economies of scale will actually more than double) and IOC could be fairly valued on this alone.
3) An oil find would obviously provide a tremendous benefit to the stock price due to the very quick (and hopefully very large) CF that would be generated. Obviously, the well logs for Antelope-2 increased the likelihood of this event.


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Msg # Subject Author Recs Date Posted
3363 Re: From Ray Jay/Sltibbs us2u001 3 11/18/2009 4:47:25 PM


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