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Msg  180708 of 181008  at  5/25/2022 5:35:00 PM  by

from6454


 In response to msg 180702 by  from6454
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Re: conclusion of the call

There are some missing pieces for RETAIL investors.
 
Three missing information from the call.
 
1.) MPLS is declining, high margin business. 
 
2.) Though it is exciting to hear edge is growing, but again there is no numbers provided.  Assuming the growth rate is true.  What is the edge revenue from 2021? 
 
Compare 2021 vs 2020, "Computer and Application Services, $1.748B vs $1.755M, and there was no growth there, what so ever!
 
Even if we give edge revenue of $50M for 2021, a 100% growth will be $100M for 2022, $200M for 2023, $400M for 2024, $800M for 2025.  FCF for those of $800M, if lucky, contribute $300M a year by the end of 2025.  Will LUMN be able to recover $10B of $20B investment by the end of 2030?
 
Without a number, it is very much like LVLT's CDN.  And that was exactly what they said about CDN. 
 
3.)  As to SMA and mid-market, their product and pricing can easily beat cables, but they are not able to get customers from cables, why?
 
Only hoping LUMN can continue cut cost to deal with declining revenue.  It seems like that is the only thing they can do..  After two assets sales, I think they still have a lot of corporate main office employees need to let go, in order to get the same EBIDTA margin.
 


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