You can also said, you have shorted Netflix and AMZN, NVDA, AMD, SNOW, CRWD, PYPL, or even VZ, ATUS, for the past 9 months, and now you are using all the proceed to buy LUMN right BEFORE earning. You are the greatest investors of all time. You beat Jenny's performance. Yes, you can.
No one really know how stock will go up and down, beside company outlook and numbers that support those view. That is not what I am talking about. I am only interested in numbers. Looking back 2 years, you said you are doing well. Remind you really not getting 10% of your original investment. you are getting 4% and 9% of 4% (dividend) but losing 65% of your original investment for the past 6 years. If you compare to SPY and the dividend from SPY. It is nothing to be happy about.
MS provides their projections, I don't know how accurate it is, but with great credibility. If LUMN cuts dividend to $0.25 a year, can you image all your re-investment and holding of LUMN? Stock drop to $5 a share with 5% dividend yield, equal to T and VZ. What is your dividend re-investment and the stock you are holding right now? It is scary to look back, but it is even more scary to look forward.
You certainly will disagree. But I will point out MS provides credibility numbers to support that. And where is your numbers? Nothing! Nothing! Can you provide some research to proven revenue growth? EBIDTA back to $8.4B 2023 or 2024? FCF back to $4B 2023? No, you cannot. Or dividend increase to $2 a share? No. you cannot. So what is the chance that LUMN's downside (due to dividend cut) VS LUMN's upside (due to dividend cut).
Maybe not 75% cut of dividend. How about 50% dividend cut? That is possible. When you see LUMN didn't announce stock buy back, you know there is a possibility.
Can you provide numbers to support your upside? No, you cannot. I have never see any numbers to support your upside of EBIDTA/FCF/Dividend. NOTHING!
Is there any possibility LUMN price will move up. Yes, there are many reasons like short-squeeze, buyers show up, WB or hedge funds are buying. And you will come out and claim how smart you are, that is fine.
BUT, the fact is "YOU HAVE NO NUMBERS!" And when you are happy with the dividend that you collected and re-investment for past 5 years. But you know things that happened to CTL's 2017-2018, have a great chance to happen again if LUMN cut dividend again next year. And that will wipe out all your re-investment and current holdings. Storey only said dividend is a very important capital allocation plan, but he never said $1 a share will stay for next five years, or it will not be cut 50%? There will be dividend, but how much? Maybe you can ask the question during the shareholder meeting.
I said that before, timing to cut dividend is not right now. If LUMN buy back stock and move stock to $20 and announce they will cut 50% dividend and use those money to fund continue stock buy back. That will stabilize the stock price, at the same time reduce dividend payout ratio.
But instead, Storey put money into CapEx that failed to grow. Failed. Why failed? Retail investors don't know. Shorts knew, because they are talking to real top industry experts, they knew there is not orders, and sales/marketing are weak. He should steps down. There is no confidence on him to lead LUMN.
Give me some numbers to support EBIDTA/FCF and chances of upside dividend.