Years and Years | LUMN Message Board Posts

Lumen Technologies, Inc.

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Msg  169639 of 181600  at  9/25/2020 11:35:43 AM  by


Years and Years

We've watched and hoped that this company built exactly for this moment would finally show itself as a standout. We've seen tiny companies like 8x8, vonage, zoom,eqix, find unique niches in the communication ecosystem and thrive. Not to mention simple easy well known names from all other industries create wealth for simple investors through this remarkable bull market. And, here we are 20+ years in and we still can't get a straight answer from our CEO on the true state of the business because he thinks knowing the truth would make the performance even worse. All the while paying these leaders remarkable amounts of money. What are we left with? A network that somehow still needs billions of dollars a year just to stay in place competitively despite it supposedly having all of the new network builds of the last quarter century under one name. A company losing revenue in so many of its businesses but can't dispose of any of them while being hamstrung by to much debt. A shift to enterprise and tech just as tech has become markedly overvalued and models are set that seem to prevent any sharing of gains. And, a company that in its short term view thought it smart to give away its advantages on the hope that more services would be obtained only to realize that no company wants to give them anything more than they have to. A company that brags it knows how to win gov't contracts and then proceeds to lose the big ones. And now, a company who's investors can't wait for a poison pill to expire to learn no one wants to buy them anyway. The flat, non professional, no meat introduction of the name change and the Storey presentation have convinced me there is dwindling hope for this company. If inflation comes we are hosed, if deflation comes we are hosed, if goldilocks economy prevails we gain scraps while our customers explode. If a money strain hits, if fcf goes down, if dividend is cut, all possibilities and all leading to survival struggles.Flip side is if companies decide they want our Lumen interface capabilities what kind of money will we make on it when dealing with these expert tech companies and can it even put a dent into our capital structure with the dying other businesses and the debt. As a long time long its tough to write these words but my current view is the company worst days might unfortunately still be ahead of us. Therefore, I'm forcing myself to accept that perspective and adjust holdings as necessary.
Good luck all.

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