and now to the report
as i come back from the flu the thing that struck me when i went to my sheets today was the new reclassification of HIGH margin revenue in cns voice to LOW margin wholesale voice. lvlt has pulled 33 million out of the high margin cns and dumped it in the low margin cns. assuming one is at 80% margins and one is at 25% margins that gives you a change of 18 million in ebitda. it would appear we have found a major culprit in the "compression" of earnings. we were also told lvlt lost a suit with a carrier that cost them 5 million. i wonder if they are related? we will never know because that would be to simple and straight forward to your investors. that said, is there more out there? we wont get that answer either but it would be fun to ask. so we have lost 33 million from the stable and growing pile to the evaporation low margin pile. it took us 22 months to find this out from the time this glbc deal was announced. why so long?
the iv boards prediction of layoffs was correct. my guess is we get a few more of those in q4 of this year.
i have followed this stock for a long time and i have to say this call was the worst ever for clarity. you want proof, i have analyst reports and nobody knows what the baseline ebitda number is for q1. 380, 395, what is it. that takes talent cuz the analysts arent stupid. i have talked to a few smart guys and they are having the same problem. as buffett says, if you cant understand it, its cuz they dont want you to know. mission accomplished
this company will have record earnings and profits in 2013 and 2014 and the stock will go back up. that said, right now telecom is a bad business with low returns on capital. to fix that there is going to have to be more consolidation. it has to occur. this will keep wall street on lvlt's friendly side. lvlt just had another toe stub and i look for them to be at the front of the pack in doing deals to "cloud" our memory over their failures. my vote is over seas m+a (latin america) but i dont get a vote. during the consolidation i see a change in scenery for those in upper management. its time. you had your chance, give somebody else a chance to fail. ha. This will be a very active year for lvlt and i am not 100% sure if they are the buyer or get sold. the odds of lvlt being sold are going up. it will be fun to watch as we try and get out of this mess