I'm baaaaaaack | FAX Message Board Posts

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Msg  36690 of 36694  at  10/21/2014 11:37:14 AM  by

Longnholding


 In response to msg 36689 by  MrCynical
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Re: I'm baaaaaaack

If you're looking to catch some more falling knives, the tanker sector has fallen on hard times for 2 or 3 years now.
 
People equate tanker fortunes with oil prices for no particular reason.  The hype over frakking has created the illusion that the tooth fairy (in her moonlight job as Oil Fairy) has given the U.S. independence from imported oil.  These are the same people who believe that the world economy begins and ends in the U.S.
 
The tanker supply has come into equilibrium with demand now, so rates are up.  U.S. and Canadian oil shipments to Europe are up.  China is taking advantage of low oil prices to build up it's strategic petroleum reserves.
 
I own a goodly chunk of Nordic American Tankers (NAT) and have been reinvesting dividends to acquire more while the sector is beat down.
 
In general the markets are valuing oil stocks as though the end of the oil age is imminent and the bottom will drop out of oil prices.  This despite the obvious facts that global oil consumption is increasing at a rate about the same as new sources are developed, existing oil fields deplete around 5% annually, and the much anticipated alternate energy sources remain in a future far more distant and unforeseeable than any actionable interest to investors.
 
So it's only a question of time and winter weather before the oil price pendulum takes another of it's rapid swings.
 
I'm hoping this year's tax loss season will provide some juicy opportunities; sadly, probably half the world is doing the same and with my lousy sense of market timing, I'll arrive too late and miss the train.


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