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Msg  428835 of 439399  at  8/19/2019 1:03:19 AM  by

robry825


Daily Gas Flows (Part 8- Sector Demand)

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

08/13/19 REVISIONS: A slew of revisions late Monday night, including a significant modeling
error in one of my own pipeline models, resulted in changes to many of the following sector
demand models.

The "Part 7" Industrial Demand model, The economic Models, and "Part 1" recent natural gas
injection models (for reasons I am clueless about) were also lowered both on Mondays and
Tuesdays data collection. These revisions may not be complete as of August 15th's posts.


========================================Monthly.Demand.Samplings.(BCF/Day)===========================================
.............................Generation................................................Industrial................................................Paper............................................Paperboard*...................
..........2015....2016....2017....2018....2019........2015....2016....2017....2018....2019.......2015..2016..2017..2018..2019.......2015....2016....2017....2018....2019
.........=====..=====..=====..=====..=====.....=====..=====..=====..=====..=====......====..====..====..====..====......=====..=====..=====..=====..=====
01......9.240.10.053...8.427.10.179.11.388......2.429...2.512...2.600...2.761...2.922...... .114.. .134.. .099.. .115.. .116...... .0630.. .0528.. .0426.. .0433.. .0422.
02......8.985...9.755...7.808...9.581.11.429......2.372...2.587...2.535...2.840...2.920...... .114.. .122.. .111.. .106.. .116...... .0537.. .0452.. .0396.. .0408.. .0412.
03......8.667...9.476...8.873...9.942.10.487......2.299...2.526...2.535...2.716...2.883...... .123.. .127.. .095.. .099.. .124...... .0519.. .0510.. .0375.. .0395.. .0407.
04......9.050...9.227...8.809...9.680...9.948......2.300...2.273...2.483...2.714...2.845...... .108.. .113.. .097.. .102.. .110...... .0469.. .0448.. .0335.. .0393.. .0376.
05......9.676...9.615...9.239.11.229.10.985......2.278...2.298...2.515...2.643...2.798...... .116.. .095.. .090.. .094.. .111...... .0474.. .0453.. .0346.. .0364.. .0371.
06....11.983.11.860.10.984.12.675.13.407......2.299...2.203...2.448...2.526...2.641...... .113.. .108.. .095.. .092.. .103...... .0510.. .0366.. .0364.. .0363.. .0302.
07....13.211.13.192.13.046.15.419.16.400......2.223...2.229...2.422...2.512...2.653...... .099.. .089.. .089.. .093.. .097...... .0501.. .0352.. .0341.. .0363.. .0306.
08....13.163.13.206.12.454.15.175.16.966i.....2.234...2.242...2.343...2.513...2.664i..... .110.. .097.. .081.. .098.. .096i...... .0481.. .0358.. .0355.. .0373.. .0303i
09....11.845.11.475.11.270.14.242..................2.160...2.255...2.459...2.573.................. .101.. .090.. .090.. .094.. ............. .0456.. .0341.. .0365.. .0366.. ..........
10....10.469...9.369.10.094.12.278..................2.224...2.270...2.553...2.564.................. .108.. .095.. .090.. .095.. ............. .0477.. .0381.. .0356.. .0386.. ..........
11....10.193...8.803...9.092.10.934..................2.339...2.515...2.687...2.793.................. .116.. .102.. .104.. .110.. ............. .0449.. .0385.. .0354.. .0394.. ..........
12....10.100...8.824.10.108.10.470..................2.387...2.625...2.832...2.841.................. .130.. .111.. .109.. .117.. ............. .0452.. .0421.. .0410.. .0431.. ..........



......................Chemical (All)........................Chemical (Fertilizer)*............................Refining*..........................................LNG Frac*..................
..........2015..2016..2017..2018..2019....2015..2016..2017..2018..2019....2015..2016..2017..2018..2019.......2015....2016....2017....2018....2019
.........====..====..====..====..====....====..====..====..====..====.....====..====..====..====..====.....=====..=====..=====..=====..=====
01..... .468.. .573.. .611.. .719.. .723.... .231.. .249.. .307.. .331.. .350..... .409.. .398.. .394.. .453.. .606..... .0589.. .0628.. .0589.. .0513.. .0514.
02..... .442.. .588.. .640.. .726.. .698.... .213.. .263.. .313.. .337.. .327..... .398.. .415.. .371.. .472.. .607..... .0683.. .0631.. .0514.. .0507.. .0462.
03..... .440.. .575.. .635.. .704.. .683.... .186.. .258.. .301.. .345.. .327..... .388.. .394.. .370.. .457.. .609..... .0657.. .0611.. .0481.. .0511.. .0496.
04..... .470.. .457.. .634.. .707.. .701.... .223.. .228.. .308.. .348.. .328..... .398.. .333.. .382.. .445.. .617..... .0644.. .0600.. .0510.. .0478.. .0465.
05..... .468.. .457.. .628.. .692.. .675.... .226.. .230.. .301.. .341.. .323..... .365.. .349.. .386.. .425.. .595..... .0569.. .0615.. .0473.. .0498.. .0388.
06..... .483.. .408.. .570.. .660.. .621.... .229.. .201.. .277.. .322.. .293..... .335.. .315.. .370.. .411.. .541..... .0617.. .0650.. .0520.. .0457.. .0493.
07..... .481.. .421.. .575.. .661.. .664.... .225.. .223.. .290.. .325.. .301..... .332.. .326.. .365.. .410.. .528..... .0520.. .0636.. .0532.. .0498.. .0418.
08..... .456.. .438.. .525.. .624.. .672i... .199.. .226.. .194.. .281.. .323i.... .322.. .332.. .366.. .422.. .530i..... .0521.. .0572.. .0530.. .0436.. .0397i
09..... .397.. .451.. .619.. .673.. ........... .152.. .193.. .298.. .325.. ............ .341.. .348.. .385.. .412.. ............ .0545.. .0550.. .0575.. .0506.. ..........
10..... .408.. .503.. .608.. .700.. ........... .164.. .183.. .251.. .328.. ............ .340.. .369.. .406.. .404.. ............ .0683.. .0630.. .0566.. .0526.. ..........
11..... .482.. .592.. .700.. .733.. ........... .232.. .260.. .323.. .348.. ............ .398.. .416.. .419.. .489.. ............ .0650.. .0642.. .0543.. .0425.. ..........
12..... .485.. .625.. .750.. .730.. ........... .228.. .283.. .358.. .354.. ............ .410.. .425.. .444.. .506.. ............ .0657.. .0622.. .0515.. .0479.. ..........



............................Ethanol..............................................Auto*......................................................Glass*..........................................Mining & Minerals*...........
.........2015...2016..2017..2018..2019.....2015....2016....2017....2018....2019.......2015....2016...2017....2018....2019........2015....2016....2017....2018....2019
.........====..====..====..====..====....=====..=====..=====..=====..=====.....=====..=====..=====..=====..=====.....=====..=====..=====..=====..=====
01..... .342.. .333.. .353.. .350.. .345......0131.. .0125.. .0125.. .0118.. .0112..... .0159.. .0200.. .0231.. .0232.. .0233..... .0937.. .0896.. .0783.. .0770.. .0843.
02..... .332.. .327.. .345.. .350.. .350......0149.. .0118.. .0115.. .0109.. .0106..... .0148.. .0206.. .0240.. .0231.. .0246..... .0945.. .0874.. .0856.. .0902.. .0898.
03..... .331.. .329.. .348.. .346.. .343......0109.. .0093.. .0103.. .0091.. .0097..... .0149.. .0202.. .0235.. .0228.. .0239..... .0917.. .0833.. .0800.. .0818.. .0863.
04..... .326.. .317.. .326.. .340.. .346......0076.. .0082.. .0061.. .0079.. .0076..... .0156.. .0193.. .0223.. .0228.. .0225..... .0704.. .0840.. .0850.. .0940.. .0930.
05..... .321.. .324.. .320.. .341.. .343......0065.. .0074.. .0073.. .0062.. .0066..... .0152.. .0192.. .0215.. .0223.. .0220..... .0815.. .0870.. .0783.. .0839.. .0878.
06..... .326.. .326.. .320.. .341.. .345......0062.. .0070.. .0066.. .0060.. .0065..... .0150.. .0210.. .0212.. .0226.. .0218..... .0759.. .0859.. .0807.. .0788.. .0747.
07..... .317.. .330.. .321.. .348.. .341......0058.. .0061.. .0054.. .0054.. .0060..... .0149.. .0215.. .0213.. .0228.. .0220..... .0742.. .0824.. .0786.. .0787.. .0765.
08..... .316.. .329.. .337.. .355.. .338i.....0070.. .0062.. .0059.. .0057.. .0060i.... .0171.. .0194.. .0212.. .0220.. .0219i..... .0650.. .0632.. .0711.. .0652.. .0777i
09..... .309.. .321.. .323.. .341.. .............0071.. .0063.. .0061.. .0062.. .............. .0179.. .0190.. .0213.. .0220.. .............. .0652.. .0667.. .0785.. .0752.. ..........
10..... .331.. .334.. .337.. .347.. .............0076.. .0075.. .0071.. .0070.. .............. .0176.. .0200.. .0213.. .0226.. .............. .0764.. .0803.. .0790.. .0838.. ..........
11..... .342.. .347.. .353.. .340.. .............0097.. .0094.. .0094.. .0087.. .............. .0176.. .0210.. .0220.. .0236.. .............. .0887.. .0805.. .0891.. .0883.. ..........
12..... .330.. .348.. .355.. .333.. .............0102.. .0113.. .0110.. .0094.. .............. .0195.. .0217.. .0223.. .0238.. .............. .0898.. .0839.. .0914.. .0894.. ..........



..........................Metals (All).............................Metals (Aluminum).................................Metals (Copper)...................................Metals (Steel).....
.........2015..2016..2017..2018..2019.....2015..2016..2017..2018..2019......2015....2016....2017....2018....2019.....2015..2016..2017..2018..2019
.........====..====..====..====..====....====..====..====..====..====.....=====..=====..=====..=====..=====.....====..====..====..====..====
01..... .265.. .264.. .291.. .300.. .336......038.. .034.. .049.. .037.. .040..... .0667.. .0891.. .0853.. .0858.. .0856..... .143.. .136.. .153.. .172.. .206.
02..... .274.. .284.. .264.. .314.. .330......050.. .035.. .050.. .038.. .039..... .0639.. .0898.. .0852.. .0855.. .0854..... .147.. .155.. .125.. .185.. .201.
03..... .261.. .269.. .284.. .296.. .331......057.. .039.. .050.. .038.. .039..... .0629.. .0823.. .0848.. .0849.. .0850..... .135.. .143.. .144.. .169.. .201.
04..... .256.. .253.. .269.. .296.. .311......039.. .033.. .043.. .040.. .039..... .0592.. .0843.. .0842.. .0846.. .0842..... .154.. .132.. .139.. .166.. .184.
05..... .227.. .266.. .286.. .268.. .329......038.. .045.. .051.. .039.. .037..... .0615.. .0836.. .0840.. .0840.. .0839..... .123.. .134.. .147.. .140.. .204.
06..... .247.. .259.. .285.. .276.. .299......039.. .043.. .050.. .039.. .037..... .0876.. .0836.. .0838.. .0837.. .0837..... .117.. .129.. .147.. .148.. .174.
07..... .216.. .268.. .276.. .267.. .305......020.. .041.. .049.. .037.. .036..... .0955.. .0839.. .0827.. .0833.. .0834..... .096.. .140.. .141.. .144.. .181.
08..... .246.. .256.. .258.. .286.. .297i.....021.. .043.. .047.. .037.. .036i.... .0933.. .0841.. .0839.. .0838.. .0838i..... .128.. .124.. .122.. .160.. .172i
09..... .245.. .242.. .253.. .294.. .............021.. .044.. .050.. .037.. ............ .0848.. .0837.. .0838.. .0838.. .............. .136.. .110.. .115.. .169.. ........
10..... .224.. .236.. .289.. .309.. .............022.. .042.. .047.. .038.. ............ .0747.. .0840.. .0841.. .0840.. .............. .123.. .107.. .155.. .183.. ........
11..... .208.. .271.. .274.. .329.. .............024.. .044.. .037.. .041.. ............ .0803.. .0844.. .0847.. .0851.. .............. .100.. .140.. .148.. .198.. ........
12..... .228.. .278.. .291.. .330.. .............025.. .044.. .039.. .037.. ............ .0881.. .0847.. .0846.. .0848.. .............. .111.. .146.. .163.. .203.. ........



.....................Building Materials (All)............................Bldg Mtls (Lumber)............................Bldg Mtls (Masonry & Brick)..............................Bldg Mtls (Cement)............
...........2015....2016....2017....2018....2019......2015....2016....2017....2018....2019.......2015....2016....2017....2018....2019.........2015......2016......2017......2018.....2019
.........=====..=====..=====..=====..=====....=====..=====..=====..=====..=====.....=====..=====..=====..=====..=====.....======..======..======..======..======
01..... .0480.. .0479.. .0515.. .0529.. .0560......0217.. .0220.. .0205.. .0233.. .0248..... .0065.. .0061.. .0079.. .0069.. .0067..... .00202.. .00186.. .00228.. .00400.. .00477.
02..... .0497.. .0525.. .0487.. .0508.. .0570......0241.. .0242.. .0205.. .0201.. .0254..... .0058.. .0061.. .0071.. .0074.. .0068..... .00191.. .00362.. .00221.. .00328.. .00481.
03..... .0474.. .0514.. .0492.. .0514.. .0538......0227.. .0238.. .0204.. .0208.. .0233..... .0053.. .0056.. .0074.. .0058.. .0070..... .00188.. .00330.. .00346.. .00534.. .00414.
04..... .0472.. .0504.. .0486.. .0498.. .0550......0200.. .0226.. .0195.. .0188.. .0241..... .0069.. .0066.. .0072.. .0066.. .0067..... .00280.. .00297.. .00213.. .00353.. .00443.
05..... .0465.. .0495.. .0504.. .0510.. .0542......0199.. .0202.. .0187.. .0182.. .0237..... .0047.. .0064.. .0075.. .0076.. .0072..... .00385.. .00353.. .00364.. .00533.. .00311.
06..... .0463.. .0469.. .0489.. .0515.. .0580......0208.. .0177.. .0193.. .0212.. .0244..... .0043.. .0061.. .0071.. .0075.. .0076..... .00184.. .00280.. .00174.. .00319.. .00591.
07..... .0392.. .0502.. .0486.. .0528.. .0563......0150.. .0189.. .0192.. .0222.. .0237..... .0049.. .0077.. .0072.. .0073.. .0081..... .00251.. .00354.. .00292.. .00374.. .00475.
08..... .0444.. .0486.. .0500.. .0552.. .0535i.....0208.. .0185.. .0199.. .0197.. .0228i.... .0056.. .0068.. .0072.. .0074.. .0071i..... .00193.. .00233.. .00225.. .00759.. .00331i
09..... .0458.. .0518.. .0488.. .0524.. ...............0206.. .0206.. .0185.. .0182.. .............. .0048.. .0068.. .0073.. .0085.. .............. .00225.. .00511.. .00282.. .00559.. ............
10..... .0502.. .0536.. .0497.. .0502.. ...............0222.. .0206.. .0185.. .0187.. .............. .0064.. .0066.. .0070.. .0066.. .............. .00232.. .00479.. .00317.. .00487.. ............
11..... .0505.. .0542.. .0530.. .0515.. ...............0208.. .0219.. .0191.. .0212.. .............. .0057.. .0072.. .0081.. .0072.. .............. .00594.. .00328.. .00371.. .00539.. ............
12..... .0491.. .0518.. .0544.. .0533.. ...............0210.. .0203.. .0217.. .0222.. .............. .0058.. .0080.. .0079.. .0075.. .............. .00486.. .00267.. .00434.. .00451.. ............



............................Bldg Mtls (Asphalt)................................................Food........................................Agriculture & Livestock*....................................Agricultural Irrigation*..................
............2015......2016......2017......2018......2019.......2015....2016....2017....2018....2019.......2015....2016....2017....2018....2019.........2015........2016........2017........2018........2019
.........======..======..======..======..======....=====..=====..=====..=====..=====.....=====..=====..=====..=====..=====.....=======..=======..=======..=======..=======
01..... .00071.. .00066.. .00057.. .00188.. .00099......0626.. .0605.. .0655.. .0648.. .0709..... .0139.. .0143.. .0150.. .0148.. .0153..... .000120.. .000106.. .000077.. .000036.. .000070.
02..... .00065.. .00085.. .00064.. .00083.. .00087......0606.. .0566.. .0612.. .0579.. .0661..... .0140.. .0134.. .0129.. .0145.. .0147..... .000095.. .000099.. .000100.. .000074.. .000078.
03..... .00144.. .00122.. .00085.. .00101.. .00079......0539.. .0588.. .0585.. .0646.. .0588..... .0124.. .0112.. .0108.. .0129.. .0127..... .000093.. .000078.. .000063.. .000070.. .000075.
04..... .00192.. .00166.. .00135.. .00139.. .00168......0607.. .0553.. .0623.. .0667.. .0674..... .0110.. .0110.. .0105.. .0122.. .0117..... .000154.. .000121.. .000048.. .000125.. .000107.
05..... .00169.. .00179.. .00196.. .00188.. .00161......0570.. .0512.. .0598.. .0584.. .0652..... .0102.. .0091.. .0095.. .0101.. .0106..... .000173.. .000129.. .000084.. .000066.. .000076.
06..... .00214.. .00178.. .00265.. .00180.. .00169......0507.. .0473.. .0514.. .0530.. .0527..... .0094.. .0074.. .0072.. .0100.. .0078..... .000192.. .000202.. .000175.. .000174.. .000201.
07..... .00191.. .00165.. .00188.. .00176.. .00181......0464.. .0476.. .0506.. .0547.. .0528..... .0083.. .0085.. .0093.. .0078.. .0101..... .000291.. .000303.. .000265.. .000205.. .000230.
08..... .00193.. .00175.. .00214.. .00213.. .00184i.....0451.. .0490.. .0524.. .0515.. .0516i.... .0097.. .0094.. .0098.. .0094.. .0102i..... .000382.. .000281.. .000277.. .000228.. .000162i
09..... .00184.. .00169.. .00195.. .00175.. .................0452.. .0495.. .0510.. .0534.. .............. .0098.. .0085.. .0090.. .0097.. .............. .000119.. .000123.. .000142.. .000176.. ..............
10..... .00205.. .00190.. .00208.. .00222.. .................0452.. .0504.. .0524.. .0525.. .............. .0113.. .0106.. .0103.. .0110.. .............. .000076.. .000093.. .000068.. .000102.. ..............
11..... .00131.. .00188.. .00321.. .00135.. .................0483.. .0519.. .0551.. .0564.. .............. .0128.. .0127.. .0124.. .0121.. .............. .000107.. .000044.. .000094.. .000055.. ..............
12..... .00090.. .00100.. .00275.. .00120.. .................0586.. .0618.. .0620.. .0662.. .............. .0139.. .0142.. .0145.. .0150.. .............. .000145.. .000039.. .000037.. .000089.. ..............

......* = Experimental Sampling


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