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Msg  224167 of 419354  at  8/31/2016 4:12:23 AM  by

robry825


Daily Gas Flows (Part 1- US Storage)

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


(Best viewed at 14 pixel "Font Size", "Fixed Width" as set from the "My IV" Link)
(See post 428 for footnotes & explanations of the various models)

Robry on Enercast...................................... http://www.firstenercastfinancial.com/energy/
Robry on IDB............................................... http://www.investordiscussionboard.com/boards/cwei

Robry Spreadsheet Software...................... http://robry825.com

Robry Raw Data.(.gsc format).................... http://robry825.com/Robry_Data_Historical.gsc
Robry Raw Data.(.ods format).................... http://robry825.com/Robry_Data_Historical.ods
......* (Data files are contributions to the public domain and as such
.........may be republished & redistributed, with or without attribution.)



=========================US Gas Flow Models (US storage injections, in BCF, as of 9AM)==========================
...Week.....------------------Composite.Model-----------------------------...Capacity....EIA.........EIA......Baseline.......------EIA------.....Capacity.Model
_Ending___Sat__Sun__ Mon__Tue__Wed__ Thr___Fri___Total___Model__ Model__Actual__(Neutral)___YOY__YO5YA__YOY__YO5YA
05/20/16......9.0......9.3....10.8....11.2......9.2....10.7....10.8......71.0..........64..........57..........71............86...............743........760........432........282
05/27/16....12.2....12.4....12.6....11.6....11.3....10.6....11.3......82.0..........86..........84..........82..........113...............695........744........412........269
06/03/16....10.1......9.8......9.9......9.4......8.5......8.0......9.3......65.0..........74..........71..........65............89...............650........715........396........249
06/10/16......7.8......9.2......9.6......8.0....17.9......8.4......8.1......69.0..........81..........70..........69............92...............621........696........391........234
06/17/16......9.3......9.2......9.9....10.1......7.5......8.2......7.8......62.0..........73..........61..........62............74...............608........671........397........212
06/24/16......6.2......7.0......6.4......3.6......5.3......6.8......6.8......42.0..........43..........34..........37............67...............575........628........372........169
07/01/16......7.4......6.8......6.0......3.9......4.3......5.1......5.6......39.0..........60..........43..........39............74...............528........592........358........154
07/08/16......8.9......9.2....12.6....10.5......8.3......7.3......7.2......64.0..........67..........66..........64............63...............491........578........356........149
07/15/16......5.3......6.2......5.8......4.5......3.7......4.1......4.5......34.0..........48..........33..........34............57...............453........550........320........130
07/22/16......3.4......4.9......4.6......2.2......1.5......0.3......0.0......17.0..........41..........26..........17............38...............424........518........303........120
07/29/16.....-1.7....-0.4.....-0.4.....-1.7.....-1.1....-1.3......0.6.......-5.0..........21...........-6...........-6............16...............380........459........276..........82
08/05/16......3.9......5.5......5.5......3.4......2.9......3.4......4.3......29.0..........40..........31..........29............47...............354........434........265..........65
08/12/16......4.0......5.0......5.0......3.3......1.8......2.0......0.9......22.0..........33..........23..........22............35...............318........400........233..........39
08/19/16......0.5......2.3......2.5......1.2......1.6......1.1......1.9......11.0..........22............0..........11............37...............266........343........200...........-6
08/26/16......6.8......8.0......8.2......6.9......7.6......6.7......5.6......49.8..........47..........50..........................68...............229........325........158.........-23
09/02/16......4.4......5.7i.....5.4i.....3.2i......2.3i....-0.1i.....0.1i.....21.0i.........13i..........21i............................................185........302........109i........-49i



================== EIA-Weighted Model Track Record ==================
.................................................................................................................................Unresolved Model
............................................................................................Interpd............................Miss By Region
......................................Capacity....Wkly...Wkly....Model.....EIA...........................As of Date Evaluated
................For Week.........Model.....Model....EIA......Miss...Monthly.........Date.......Prod.....East....West
....Run........Ending...........(BCF)....(BCF)..(BCF)..(BCF)...(BCF)......Evaluated..(BCF)..(BCF)..(BCF)
09/04/13..(08/30/13)...........................50.......58........+8.......................01/16/14....+7.1......-0.5....+1.8....(Unknown)
09/11/13..(09/06/13)...........................72.......65.........-7.......................01/16/14.....-1.7......-4.1....+0.1....(Unknown, possible silent reversal/correction of E: above? F: comes next week??? Very speculative/unlikely but possible.)
09/18/13..(09/13/13)...........................53.......43.......-10.(C).................01/16/14.....-1.5......-1.5....+0.6....(Unknown)
09/26/13..(09/20/13)...........................93.......87.........-6.......................01/16/14....+0.8......-6.6....+1.1
10/02/13..(09/27/13).........................100.....101........+1
10/10/13..(10/04/13)...........................90.......90
10/17/13..(10/11/13)...........................75.......77........+2
10/22/13..(10/18/13)...........................87.......87
10/29/13..(10/25/13)...........................30.......38........+8.......................03/06/14....+5.1.....+3.4....+1.2....(Generic miss but does not fit baseline. Generic EIA adjustment?)
11/06/13..(11/01/13)...........................28.......35........+7.......................03/06/14....+9.8......-3.4.....-0.2....(Unknown)
11/13/13..(11/08/13)...........................12.......20........+8.......................03/06/14.....-0.5...+10.1.....-0.0....(Unknown)
11/19/13..(11/15/13)..........................-42......-45........-3.......................03/06/14.....-1.2......-0.4.....-0.8
11/26/13..(11/22/13)............................-3......-13......-10.......................03/06/14.....-5.1......-0.9.....-0.3....(Unknown)
12/05/13..(11/29/13)........................-148....-162......-14.......................03/06/14...-14.1.....+5.7....+0.4....(G: Unknown)
12/10/13..(12/06/13)..........................-80......-81........-1.......................03/06/14.....-1.5.....+7.3.....-1.5
12/18/13..(12/13/13)........................-262....-285......-23.......................03/06/14...-15.0.....+4.9.....-3.3....(H: Unknown)
12/26/13..(12/20/13)........................-170....-177........-7.......................03/06/14.....-1.0......-1.6....+1.3....(Unknown)
01/02/14..(12/27/13)........................-102......-97.......+5.......................03/06/14....+2.5.....+5.5.....-0.6
01/06/14..(01/03/14)........................-150....-157........-7.......................03/06/14.....-9.3.....+3.6....+1.6....(I: Unknown)
01/13/14..(01/10/14)........................-305....-287.....+18.......................03/06/14..+16.5......-6.2.....-0.6....(Unknown).(Silent correction of G: and H: above? G: through I:? Outstanding Salt Data?)
01/21/14..(01/17/14)........................-104....-107........-3
01/29/14..(01/24/14)........................-233....-238........-5
02/05/14..(01/31/14)........................-285....-262.....+23.......................03/06/14..+22.7......-4.8.....-0.8....(Unknown)
02/12/14..(02/07/14)........................-217....-237......-20.......................03/06/14.....-5.5......-5.9....+1.3....(Generic miss... EIA presumed correct)
02/19/14..(02/14/14)........................-243....-250........-7
02/26/14..(02/21/14)..........................-84......-95......-11.......................03/13/14......0.0......-3.9....+0.1....(Generic miss... EIA presumed correct)
03/05/14..(02/28/14)........................-133....-152......-19.......................03/13/14...-16.1......-2.9.....-0.2....(Producing-region centered...Slightly reduced salt-dome skew)
03/12/14..(03/07/14)........................-201....-195.......+6.......................03/13/14....+5.7.....+0.9.....-0.1....(Producing-region centered...Slightly reduced salt-dome skew)
03/18/14..(03/14/14)..........................-57......-47.....+10.......................03/24/14....+1.6.....+7.3....+0.7....(Generic miss... EIA presumed correct)
03/25/14..(03/21/14)..........................-57......-57
04/03/14..(03/28/14)..........................-79......-74........-5
04/08/14..(04/04/14)...........................13..........4........-9.......................04/11/14.....-2.3......-4.7.....-1.6....(Generic miss... EIA presumed correct)
04/16/14..(04/11/14)...........................37........24......-13.......................04/18/14.....-3.6......-8.8.....-0.4....(Generic miss... EIA presumed correct)
04/23/14..(04/18/14)...........................64........49......-15.......................04/25/14.....-1.9....-11.3.....-1.6....(Near-generic miss... EIA presumed correct)
04/30/14..(04/25/14)...........................85........82........-3
05/07/14..(05/02/14)...........................75........74........-1
05/14/14..(05/09/14).........................113........97........-8.(D).................05/16/14.....-1.0......-4.7.....-1.9....(Eastern-region miss. Reclassification transposed?)
05/21/14..(05/16/14).........................110......106........-4
05/27/14..(05/23/14).........................117......114........-3
06/04/14..(05/30/14).........................116......119.......+3
06/11/14..(06/06/14).........................119......107......-12.......................06/12/14.....-1.3......-9.0.....-1.8....(Near-generic miss... EIA presumed correct)
06/18/14..(06/13/14).........................114......113........-1
06/25/14..(06/20/14).........................117......110........-7.......................06/26/14......1.3......-7.8.....-0.7....(Eastern-region miss)
06/30/14..(06/27/14).........................106......100........-6
07/10/14..(07/04/14)...........................92........93.......+1
07/17/14..(07/11/14).........................102......107.......+5
07/23/14..(07/18/14)...........................93........90........-3
07/31/14..(07/25/14)...........................93........88........-5
08/07/14..(08/01/14)...........................82........82
08/12/14..(08/08/14)...........................87........78........-9
08/20/14..(08/15/14)...........................91........88........-3
08/27/14..(08/22/14)...........................82........75........-7
09/02/14..(08/29/14)...........................81........79........-2
09/08/14..(09/05/14)...........................88........92.......+4
09/16/14..(09/12/14)...........................85........90.......+5
09/23/14..(09/19/14)...........................96........97.......+1
09/28/14..(09/26/14).........................106......112.......+6
10/06/14..(10/03/14)...........................99......105.......+6
10/15/14..(10/10/14)...........................84........94.....+10
10/22/14..(10/17/14)...........................91........94.......+3
10/27/14..(10/24/14)...........................82........87.......+5
11/04/14..(10/31/14)...........................81........91.....+10
11/12/14..(11/07/14)...........................29........40.....+11
11/19/14..(11/14/14)..........................-14.......-17........-3
11/24/14..(11/21/14)........................-154.....-162........-8
12/03/14..(11/28/14)..........................-24.......-22.......+2
12/07/14..(12/05/14)..........................-51.......-51
12/18/14..(12/12/14)..........................-62.......-64........-2
12/25/14..(12/19/14)..........................-58.......-49.......+9
12/31/14..(12/26/14)..........................-19.......-26........-7
01/05/15..(01/02/15)........................-124.....-131........-7
01/13/15..(01/09/15)........................-208.....-236......-28
01/21/15..(01/16/15)........................-217.....-216.......+1
................(01/23/15)......................................-94
01/26/15..(01/30/15)........................-115.....-115..................................(Last-posted estimate prior to EIA report)
02/03/15..(01/30/15)........................-121.....-115.......+6.......................(Back-casted estimate following EIA report)
02/16/15..(02/06/15)........................-144.....-160......-16
02/18/15..(02/13/15)........................-105.....-111........-6
02/25/15..(02/20/15)........................-226.....-219.......+6
03/03/15..(02/27/15)........................-225.....-228........-3
03/11/15..(03/06/15)........................-190.....-198........-8
03/16/15..(03/13/15)..........................-52.......-45.........7
03/16/15..(03/20/15)...........................11........12..........1
04/01/15..(03/27/15)..........................-22.......-18..........4
04/01/15..(04/03/15)..........................-11........15........26.......................(Last-posted estimate prior to EIA report)
................(04/03/15).............................2**.....15........13.......................(Back-casted estimate following EIA report)
04/14/15..(04/10/15)...........................59........63..........4
04/14/15..(04/17/15)...........................64i.......90.........26.......................(Last-posted estimate prior to EIA report)
05/06/15..(04/17/15)...........................83........90..........7.......................(Back-casted estimate following EIA report)
05/06/15..(04/24/15)...........................84........81.........-3.......................(Back-casted estimate following EIA report)
05/06/15..(05/01/15)...........................74........76..........2
05/12/15..(05/08/15).........................113......111.........-2
05/19/15..(05/15/15)...........................99........92.........-7
05/27/15..(05/22/15).........................107......112..........5
06/02/15..(05/29/15).........................134......132.........-2
06/11/15..(06/05/15).........................114......111.........-3
06/16/15..(06/12/15)...........................98........89.........-9
06/18/15..(06/19/15)...........................80........75.........-5

.................................................................................................................................Unresolved Model
............................................................................................Interpd............................Miss By Region
......................................Capacity....Wkly...Wkly....Model.....EIA...........................As of Date Evaluated
................For Week.........Model.....Model....EIA......Miss...Monthly.........Date.......Prod.....East....West
....Run........Ending...........(BCF)....(BCF)..(BCF)..(BCF)...(BCF)......Evaluated..(BCF)..(BCF)..(BCF)
07/01/15..(06/26/15)...........................75........69.........-6
07/08/15..(07/03/15)...........................93........91.........-2
07/14/15..(07/10/15).........................106........99.........-7
07/21/15..(07/17/15)...........................67........68........+1.(E)
07/28/15..(07/24/15)...........................56........52.........-4
08/06/15..(07/31/15)...........................45........32.......-13.......................06/26/15.....-5.6.....-7.3.....-0.5....(Generic miss... EIA presumed correct)
08/12/15..(08/07/15)...........................66........65.........-1
08/18/15..(08/14/15)...........................61........53.........-8
08/25/15..(08/21/15)...........................67........69........+2
09/03/15..(08/28/15)...........................94........86.........-8.(F)
09/09/15..(09/04/15)...........................79........68.......-11
09/16/15..(09/11/15)...........................75........73.........-2
09/23/15..(09/18/15).........................107......106.........-1
09/30/15..(09/25/15).........................102........98.........-4
10/07/15..(10/02/15).........................102........95.........-7
10/14/15..(10/09/15)...........................95......100........+5
10/20/15..(10/16/15)...........................83........81.........-2
10/28/15..(10/23/15)...........................62........63........+1
11/04/15..(10/30/15)...........................53........52.........-1
11/10/15..(11/06/15)...........................40........56......+16
11/17/15..(11/13/15)...........................10........15........+5
11/25/15..(11/20/15).............................6..........9........+3
12/02/15..(11/27/15)..........................-42.......-53.......-11.......................12/08/15......n/a......n/a......n/a....(Robry825 model undercount error... EIA correct)
12/09/15..(12/04/15)..........................-61.......-76.......-15
12/17/15..(12/11/15)..........................-33.......-34.........-1
12/24/15..(12/18/15)..........................-27.......-32.........-5
12/31/15..(12/25/15)..........................-62.......-58........+4
01/06/16..(01/01/16)..........................-67.....-113......+46.......................(Pre-EIA Robry825 model adjustments (Original "Official" estimate)
01/08/16..(01/01/16)..........................-91.....-113......+22.......................(Post-EIA Robry model adjustments)
01/14/16..(01/01/16)..........................-95*...-113......+18.......................(*01/26/16 run, with ongoing internal modeling adjustments)
01/14/16..(01/08/16)........................-157.....-168......+11
01/20/16..(01/15/16)........................-178.....-178............
01/26/16..(01/22/16)........................-201.....-211......+10
02/03/16..(01/29/16)........................-147.....-155........+8
02/10/16..(02/05/16)..........................-76.......-70.........-6
02/18/16..(02/12/16)........................-161.....-158.........-3
02/24/16..(02/19/16)........................-126.....-122.........-4
03/02/16..(02/26/16)..........................-45.......-48........+3
03/08/16..(03/04/16)..........................-60.......-57.........-3
03/16/16..(03/11/16).............................3.........-1........+4
03/22/16..(03/18/16)...........................28........15......+13
03/30/16..(03/25/16)..........................-22.......-25........+3
04/07/16..(04/01/16)...........................14........12........+2
04/13/16..(04/08/16).............................2.........-3........+5
04/20/16..(04/15/16)...........................11..........7........+4
04/27/16..(04/22/16)...........................69........73.........-4
05/04/16..(04/29/16)...........................62........68.........-6
05/11/16..(05/06/16)...........................57........56........+1
05/18/16..(05/13/16)...........................66........73.........-7
05/25/16..(05/20/16)...........................60........71.......-11

.................................................................................................................................Unresolved Model
............................................................................................Interpd............................Miss By Region
......................................Capacity....Wkly...Wkly....Model.....EIA...........................As of Date Evaluated
................For Week.........Model.....Model....EIA......Miss...Monthly.........Date.......Prod.....East....West
....Run........Ending...........(BCF)....(BCF)..(BCF)..(BCF)...(BCF)......Evaluated..(BCF)..(BCF)..(BCF)
06/01/16..(05/27/16).............86***.....77........82........-5......................***Capacity model's 86 BCF = "official" forcast.
06/08/16..(06/03/16).............73***.....68........65.......+3......................***Capacity model's 73 BCF = "official" forcast.
06/15/16..(06/10/16).............80..........72........69.......+3
06/22/16..(06/17/16).............73..........62........62...........
06/28/16..(06/24/16).............44..........36........42.(G)..-6
07/06/16..(07/01/16).............59..........47........39.......+8
07/12/16..(07/08/16).............67..........68........64.......+4
07/20/16..(07/15/16).............48..........35........34.......+1
07/27/16..(07/22/16).............41..........28........17.....+11
08/03/16..(07/29/16).............21...........-5.........-6.......+1
08/11/16..(08/05/16).............40..........32........29.......+3
08/17/16..(08/12/16).............33..........24........22.......+2
08/24/16..(08/19/16).............22............2........11........-9
08/31/16..(08/26/16).............47..........50........??
08/31/16..(09/02/16).............13i.........21i.......??



Notes (On above):
......(C) For purposes of analysis, a silent 3 BCF reclassification (of base gas to working gas) has been deducted from the EIA's originally-reported 46 BCF injection estimate.
................(Documentation at http://ixsnp.sonetpremier.com/ebbmasterpage/Notices/NoticesAutoTable.aspx?code=SNG&status=Notice&na
me=Non-Critical Notices&sParam1=007&sParam7=34629&sParam11=D&details=Y
)
......(D) For purposes of analysis, the 8 BCF reclassification (of base gas to working gas) has been deducted from the EIA's originally-reported 105 BCF injection estimate.
......(E) For purposes of analysis, the 7 BCF reclassification (of working gas to base gas) has been added to the EIA's originally-reported 61 BCF injection estimate.
......(F) For purposes of analysis, the 8 BCF reclassification (of base gas to working gas) has been deducted from the EIA's originally-reported 94 BCF injection estimate.
......(G) For purposes of analysis, the 5 BCF reclassification (of working gas to base gas) has been added to the EIA's originally-reported 37 BCF injection estimate.


Weekly Models:
......Weekly EIA Actual = Weekly EIA report less reclassifications & revisions.
......Weekly EIA Model = Forward estimator of the EIA weekly data, attempting to duplicate the
...................................... methodology employed by the EIA, using a 4-year rolling history of the
.......................................EIA's weekly data.

Composite Model: A compilation of all available models, derived from my own Daily & Weekly
..............................models, the EIA's Weekly & Monthly actuals, and the old AGA & Derived EIA
..............................weeklies. Initially, my own model projections (Interpolated by the daily model)
..............................are presented; followed by the EIA weekly actuals (Interpolated by the daily
..............................model), followed by the EIA monthly actuals (Interpolated successively by way
..............................of the EIA weekly, then by the daily model), with implied non-metered
..............................reclassifications & adjustments removed.

Baseline: An estimate of the weekly injection/withdrawal required for a dead-neutral report
................(Neither bullish or bearish), reflecting any given weeks temperatures, temporary
................hurricane shut-ins, Holidays, and a broad range of seasonal factors.






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