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Msg  224166 of 421634  at  8/31/2016 4:11:43 AM  by

robry825


Daily Gas Flows (Comments)

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


......MODELING NOTE: Due to ongoing personal family issues over the past year, I have been time constrained on both posting
......and modeling updates. I normally have a small backlog of modeling updates, but that backlog is to the point where some
......modeling ......(including industrial-side economics and especially natgas production) is passing reasonable limits and becoming
......stale. I am worried for model degradation, and as this approaches (unless things change) a much wider margin of error will
......have to be assumed. Some models will be temporarily flagged or possibly be suspended as this happens.

......This does not in any way affect natgas storage modeling, climate modeling, degree/day modeling, import/export modeling, or
......Consumption-side economics. It does affect natgas production modeling the greatest, so that model is especially flagged
......as such in its "Part 6" post. The Generation Model also looks to have started to underestimate.



......ECONOMICS: The summer expansion drew to a close in this weeks modeling runs, with the industrial expansion (that started
......all the way back on June 27th at an index reading of 140.3) ending its spurt August 11th at 144.4, for a gain of 2.9 percent.

......On the consumption side, the expansion lagged the industrial side, starting its spurt July 1st at an index reading of 211.7, and
......ending its push August 23rd at 230.3, for a gain of 8.8 percent. (It peaked 08/13/15 at 237.1).


......The implied distribution (based upon the differences between the two modeling sets) suggests that most of the effects of the US
......economic gains were (again) syphoned off into the international community, with foreign (imported) goods taking nearly 2/3rds
......of the economic benefit (66.743 percent), while US industry held on to not even 1/3rd (33.257 percent).

......To its nature, the Federal reserve (which runs itself primarily on antiquated monthly data) now sees the exconomic growth and
......started talking tough late last week... obviously oblivious to the strained nature that is in the dailies right now. Typical.

......To the bright side, food group scheduling has yet to swing bearish (though it toyed with bearishness last week but backed away),
......but the consumption dailies have been downright dismal. Also, steel-group scheduling, though dismal, is no more dismal than it
......was two weeks ago or even two months ago, so though the durable goods area is historically weak, it is not yet weakening.

......So I don't think it is time yet to count the sky as falling (though that certainly could change in the next 7 days if the rug gets pulled
......out from underneith us) but we have to assume economic risk to be rising and (given that the US industrial side was not permitted
......to participate in 2/3rds of the recovery) equity risk is growing too. I think equities hold together in September but October is unclear.

......But all told... it is not easy money trading anymore like it was over the summer and if the economy falls apart oil and natgas fall
......apart with it.

......POLITICALLY we are all watching for who gets the advantage because the markets will be different going forward depending on
......whether we fall Democratic or Republican come November. Now (as always) consumers tend to favor Democrats and industry
......follows Republicans. In the economy, to me the Republican side (industry) looks stretched, while the Democratic side (consumer)
......looks tired. I have to note that the consumption side is behind the industrial side (historically it is the other way around) and that
......relationship is unhealthy as well.

......Tactically, though behind in the polls, I think candidate Trump has an advantage in the economic weakness, whereas candidate Clinton
......would have advantage should the economy re-find its footing. So this weeks runs look to me ominous for the Clinton side, and the
......weak distribution-stats (as they move into the monthly trade stats) are going to scare as they emerge this fall and that is an economic
......baseball pitch right into Candidate Trumps' wheelhouse.

......Ethically, there is a lot of static both on Candidate Clinton (Servergate, Clinton Foundation) and on Candidate Trump in the press
......(simply by what he puts out of his mouth). I am cynical, however, in this day and age, that many really care. I suspect most voters
......stay on script and vote according to their history, leaving the independent side to decide (happens every time). The economy
......therefore decides November's elections.



............................................................Industrial.............Retail
...................................Weeklies.........Production.......Consumption
...................................06/04/16.............142.8.................212.4
...................................06/11/16.............141.7.................213.6
...................................06/11/16.............141.7.................213.6
...................................06/18/16.............140.9.................213.1
...................................06/25/16.............140.3.................213.4
...................................07/02/16.............140.6.................211.9
...................................07/09/16.............140.8.................212.3
...................................07/16/16.............141.3.................217.2
...................................07/23/16.............142.8.................219.1
...................................07/30/16.............144.0.................222.5
...................................08/06/16.............144.4.................224.8
...................................08/13/16.............144.2.................225.7
...................................08/20/16.............143.0.................229.4
...................................08/27/16.............142.6.................228.5



..............................................................--28.week.avg---.........---Daily.(Raw)---.........Daily
...........................................................Industrial..Personal.....Industrial..Personal.......Food
.....................................Dailies..............Prod'n.....Cons'n.........Prod'n.....Cons'n.......Group
...................................07/23/16.............142.8........219.1...........2.279.......48.82........60484
...................................07/24/16.............143.1........219.4...........2.295.......48.82........61834
...................................07/25/16.............143.4........219.4...........2.295.......48.82........62683....DNC "United Together"... Michelle Obama, Bernie Sanders, (Francisca Ortiz)
...................................07/26/16.............143.5........220.8...........2.220.......49.91........59891....DNC "A lifetime of Fighting for Children and Families"... Bill Clinton
...................................07/27/16.............143.6........221.4...........2.212.......50.53........57796....DNC "Working Together"... Barack Obama, Joe Biden
...................................07/28/16.............143.8........222.0...........2.231.......48.12........58937....DNC "Stronger Together"... Hillary Clinton, Chelsea Clinton
...................................07/29/16.............143.9........222.2...........2.233.......48.60........56835
...................................07/30/16.............144.0........222.5...........2.217.......48.07........57147
...................................07/31/16.............144.0........222.7...........2.210.......48.03........58845
...................................08/01/16.............144.1........223.2...........2.238.......50.52........60409
...................................08/02/16.............144.2........223.5...........2.236.......48.12........60514
...................................08/03/16.............144.2........223.9...........2.218.......49.14........62271
...................................08/04/16.............144.3........224.1...........2.228.......48.64........63957
...................................08/05/16.............144.4........224.6...........2.242.......49.09........61557
...................................08/06/16.............144.4........224.8...........2.200.......47.33........59954
...................................08/07/16.............144.4........224.7...........2.196.......47.33........61756....Industrial Production Peaks (All-Time high)
...................................08/08/16.............144.3........224.6...........2.187.......47.33........59916
...................................08/09/16.............144.3........224.9...........2.190.......48.19........61638
...................................08/10/16.............144.4........225.3...........2.222.......50.18........57611
...................................08/11/16.............144.4........225.0...........2.220.......50.22........58043.....
...................................08/12/16.............144.3........225.3...........2.207.......50.23........59922
...................................08/13/16.............144.2........225.7...........2.206.......51.20........59630
...................................08/14/16.............144.2........226.0...........2.206.......51.20........61199
...................................08/15/16.............144.1........226.5...........2.161.......51.20........59391
...................................08/16/16.............143.8........227.2...........2.164.......49.88........61284
...................................08/17/16.............143.5........227.9...........2.136.......49.30........62001
...................................08/18/16.............143.2........228.4...........2.125.......48.73........61464
...................................08/19/16.............143.1........229.0...........2.208i......48.73........61404
...................................08/20/16.............143.0........229.4...........2.219i......46.91........60403
...................................08/21/16.............142.8........229.8...........2.214i......46.86........62512
...................................08/22/16.............142.7........230.3...........2.180i......47.08........62901
...................................08/23/16.............142.7........230.3...........2.182i......47.67........64007.....Personal Consumption Peaks (Highest since 09/01/15)
...................................08/24/16.............142.7........229.9...........2.179i......44.05........63861
...................................08/25/16.............142.6........229.5...........2.191i......44.80........65368
...................................08/26/16.............142.6........228.9...........2.183i......44.44i.......59955i
...................................08/27/16.............142.6........228.5...........2.214i......45.06i.......60738i
...................................08/28/16.............142.6........228.1...........2.192i......45.06i.......62558i
...................................08/29/16.............142.8i.......226.9i...........2.318i......44.36i.......61197i
...................................08/30/16...................................................2.190i......46.15i.......61995i



......NATURAL GAS: Much milder weather last week brings the EIA-weighted model back up to a 50 BCF injection. Much lower salt-dome
......activity than the prior week brings the EIA-weighted model more in line with the Capacity Model (47 BCF injected) but a little less bullish
......on the baseline (18 BCF to the bullish this week projected vs last weeks 26 BCF to-the-bullish).

......Last weeks 9 BCF miss on the EIA though (EIA wtd said 2 BCF while EIA said 11 BCF) makes me nervous though, as something might
......show up this week that should have shown up last week and I would be leary of a lower injection (though 50 BCF remains the "official"
......estimate.

......NEXT WEEKS PRELIMINARY COUNT (with lots of counting remaining), is for a 21 BCF injection and with the heat and salt-withdrawals
......returning perhaps a 30-40 injection is a reasonable expectation. We also have a little bit of hurricane displacements (first time since 2014)
......so we will see what happens.

......With heat on the NOAA 8-14 day progs, a unusually (perhaps record) low injection may be on tap the following week for the Labor-day
......gas-week as well.



......OIL: Not as strait forward as last week as (economically) consumption turned lower in a convincing way. Oil has a hard time when the
......economy slows, and that possibility (of the economy rolling over) has to be consitered.

......Previously, there were abundant signs of a turn, and a scenario has been in my head ($90 oil by mid February) given that: 1) chartering
......rates suggested a rapid freeing up of tanker availability (meaning rapid depletion of seaborn inventory), 2) EIA observation of import
......pickups that would have been consistent of that also, 3) structural reshaping of the CL forward strip consistent with a depletion and
......shutdown of seaborn storage, and 4) COT reporting of large changes to commercial-long (refinery) hedging indicative of bullishness
......of refiners.

......While I keep that scenario out there, there is also that rabbit-in-the-hat (economic contraction) that has also been in my head, and that
......looms larger than last week.

......Now to the interesting part... if you have watched the refining numbers (below) you will see a definate pickup in refining activity starting
......with the beginning of the oil week (to be reported today by the EIA). Now refining has been blocked by seaborn product storage, and with
......chartered oil storage costs rising at present refiners are pressed (economically) to empty seaborn storage as much (and as quickly) as
......possible at the expense of refinery runs (and this is the reason why EIA reports have been so dismal... it is far less costly to cut refining
......and empty a products tanker, than to refine crude and keep a products tanker loaded.

......Now, if the below pickup is true (which is uncertain but possible as some refiners don't report and it could theoretically be just a switch
......from nonpublic to public refining)... if the pickup is true (and we get a bullish EIA oil report today) than that probably is the end of the
......glut right there and here comes $90 oil this winter. So the EIA gets inportant starting today (and thereafter as long as the public data
......continues to show increasing natgas deliveries to refiners).

......So (Juggling the economy with the data) the $90 oil scenario (by mid February) remains on the table. But so does recession. So we
......place our bets.



Today's refining numbers...

...................................Scheduling.............................Scheduling.............................Scheduling.............................Scheduling.............................Scheduling.............................Scheduling.............................Scheduling
...............Weeklies......(MMCF/D)..........Weeklies.......(MMCF/D)..........Weeklies.......(MMCF/D)..........Weeklies.......(MMCF/D)..........Weeklies.......(MMCF/D)..........Weeklies.......(MMCF/D)..........Weeklies.......(MMCF/D)
...............06/28/13............416...............12/27/13............451...............06/27/14............397...............12/26/14............444...............06/26/15............376...............12/25/15............459...............06/24/16............384
...............07/05/13............426...............01/03/14............447...............07/04/14............394...............01/02/15............448...............07/03/15............382...............01/01/16............450...............07/01/16............389
...............07/12/13............398...............01/10/14............429...............07/11/14............403...............01/09/15............431...............07/10/15............399...............01/08/16............438...............07/08/16............394
...............07/19/13............391...............01/17/14............441...............07/18/14............382...............01/16/15............428...............07/17/15............405...............01/15/16............437...............07/15/16............411
...............07/26/13............397...............01/24/14............420...............07/25/14............379...............01/23/15............419...............07/24/15............399...............01/22/16............441...............07/22/16............411
...............08/02/13............416...............01/31/14............392...............08/01/14............438...............01/30/15............415...............07/31/15............398...............01/29/16............424...............07/29/16............417
...............08/09/13............406...............02/07/14............411...............08/08/14............419...............02/06/15............425...............08/07/15............395...............02/05/16............437...............08/05/16............409
...............08/16/13............418...............02/14/14............419...............08/15/14............412...............02/13/15............435...............08/14/15............390...............02/12/16............458...............08/12/16............405
...............08/23/13............424...............02/21/14............442...............08/22/14............381...............02/20/15............420...............08/21/15............373...............02/19/16............441...............08/19/16............401
...............08/30/13............386...............02/28/14............410...............08/29/14............384...............02/27/15............428...............08/28/15............384...............02/26/16............468...............08/26/16............417i
...............09/06/13............426...............03/07/14............438...............09/05/14............395...............03/06/15............446...............09/04/15............394...............03/04/16............467...............09/02/16............423i
...............09/13/13............412...............03/14/14............431...............09/12/14............387...............03/13/15............447...............09/11/15............413...............03/11/16............449
...............09/20/13............394...............03/21/14............452...............09/19/14............390...............03/20/15............445...............09/18/15............402...............03/18/16............447
...............09/27/13............411...............03/28/14............452...............09/26/14............380...............03/27/15............435...............09/25/15............379...............03/25/16............440
...............10/04/13............406...............04/04/14............431...............10/03/14............382...............04/03/15............453...............10/02/15............386...............04/01/16............439
...............10/11/13............431...............04/11/14............426...............10/10/14............385...............04/10/15............467...............10/09/15............390...............04/08/16............366
...............10/18/13............393...............04/18/14............458...............10/17/14............387...............04/17/15............448...............10/16/15............395...............04/15/16............397
...............10/25/13............436...............04/25/14............420...............10/24/14............380...............04/24/15............442...............10/23/15............406...............04/22/16............374
...............11/01/13............423...............05/02/14............383...............10/31/14............426...............05/01/15............428...............10/30/15............428...............04/29/16............413
...............11/08/13............435...............05/09/14............397...............11/07/14............354...............05/08/15............404...............11/06/15............424...............05/06/16............416
...............11/15/13............458...............05/16/14............404...............11/14/14............416...............05/15/15............411...............11/13/15............452...............05/13/16............420
...............11/22/13............439...............05/23/14............415...............11/21/14............456...............05/22/15............426...............11/20/15............467...............05/20/16............424
...............11/29/13............454...............05/30/14............405...............11/28/14............463...............05/29/15............406...............11/27/15............465...............05/27/16............411
...............12/06/13............446...............06/06/14............400...............12/05/14............446...............06/05/15............402...............12/04/15............459...............06/03/16............400
...............12/13/13............467...............06/13/14............399...............12/12/14............426...............06/12/15............409...............12/11/15............446...............06/10/16............399
...............12/20/13............467...............06/20/14............401...............12/19/14............439...............06/19/15............379...............12/18/15............455...............06/17/16............383



...................................Scheduling....Weeks
.................Dalies......... (MMCF).........Avg

...............07/30/16.(w)......411
...............07/31/16.(w)......412
...............08/01/16............416
...............08/02/16............409
...............08/03/16............399
...............08/04/16............403
...............08/05/16............415.............409

...............08/06/16.(w)......405
...............08/07/16.(w)......400
...............08/08/16............401
...............08/09/16............400
...............08/10/16............408
...............08/11/16............413
...............08/12/16............408.............405

...............08/13/16.(w)......407
...............08/14/16.(w)......412
...............08/15/16............406
...............08/16/16............395
...............08/17/16............393
...............08/18/16............389
...............08/19/16............406.............401

...............08/20/16.(w)......422
...............08/21/16.(w)......423
...............08/22/16............419
...............08/23/16............423
...............08/24/16............430
...............08/25/16............407
...............08/26/16............393i............417i

...............08/27/16.(w)......430i
...............08/28/16.(w)......420i
...............08/29/16............420i............423i
...............(w) = weekend (Saturday/Sunday)




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224180 Re: Daily Gas Flows (Comments) KevinKT 2 8/31/2016 10:09:43 AM
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