Daily Gas Flows (Comments) | BRYYY Message Board Posts


BRYYY   /  Message Board  /  Read Message

 

 






Keyword
Subject
Between
and
Rec'd By
Authored By
Minimum Recs
  
Previous Message  Next Message    Post Message    Post a Reply return to message boardtop of board
Msg  112045 of 692769  at  3/26/2013 6:39:11 AM  by

robry825


Daily Gas Flows (Comments)

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


.....NATGAS: Add another 23 BCF to the YOY deficit (Capacity Model) or 25 BCF (EIA-weighted storage moodel)
.....to take those two deficit measures to 832 BCF and 740 BCF respectively. NOAA 6-8 and 8-14 progs remain
.....below-normal for the critical states of Illinois/Michigan/New York for the next two weeks, though NOAA speculated
.....yesterday in their comments of a potential pattern change at the end of their 14-day progs that would usher in
.....spring via the start of the breakdown of the negative AO / NAO pattern that has forced polar air into much of the
.....populated areas of the US.

.....With most weeklies now in, the EIA-weighted storage model adds three (to 100 BCF withdrawn) while the likely
.....more-accurate Capacity / Gas-Flow modeling suggests a 120 BCF pull. Baseline for last week was 83, placing
.....the draws at 17 BCF to-the-bullish (EIA-weighted) and 37 BCF to-the-bullish (Capacity / Gas-Flow).

.....The March-31st-to-April-1st quarters-end and month-end timeframes are also rapidly coming up. Historically,
.....baseline-shifts like to allign themselves with the beginning of new months (and even more so new quarters), and
.....with a booming economy and week natgas drilling, a bullish baseline shift starting in about a week looks to be a
.....real possibility.

.....Overall, natgas looks "wicked-bullish" and my thinking remains that natgas makes a run for par with oil in 13 months
.....(by end of April-2014). I see no credibal way arround this scenario, and as obvious as it looks... the buy side should
.....be hedging like mad right now all the way out to the end of the strip. The sell-side should not even think about hedging
.....anything until we can get a weekly baseline score below zero.

.....(Par value of natgas to WTI yesterday was $15.80)




.....ECONOMICS: No changes here in a long time... the economy is flying. Consumption model continues setting new
.....highs every day as the rising industrial model (124.6) nears its all-time high just above (125.7 on 01/09/12).

.....Federal Reserve quantitative easing appears sufficiant (for now) in replacing trade-deficit-related monitary outflows,
.....and for the time being declining long-term interest rates should give congress a little more room to cut budget-
.....deficits (though presumably when/if the Fed's force 30-year rates below 1% this will cease to work and increased
.....deficit-spending gets forced until it no longer works as well, forcing a choice for the Fed between outright monitization
.....of debt or recession... assuming the trade-imbalances persist).

.....Question is, will the world take the invitation of the Federal Reserve to restimulate itself by further increases in goods
.....sent to the US?



.....PRODUCTION / RESIDENTIAL & COMMERCIAL MODELING: Production Model remains in audit with problems
.....still to be resolved. Will be adding three new pipes to the production model shortly, while a fourth (already in the
.....model) appears to be skewed by withdrawals and needs to be rebuilt. R&C continues to be impacted by the skew
.....issues (it has been turned into a "balancing item" by the other models) which will be delt with in time by the
.....replacement of the EIA-weighted model with the new (presumed more accurate) capacity model. (The storage
.....demand catagory (also off) still represents the EIA-weighted model, but asside from the R&C, production, and
.....storage models all other models (Generation, Industrial, Import, and Export) are walled off from the skew and
.....production-counting problems, and presumed accurate).




Natgas scheduling to refineries...
...................................Scheduling
...................Day........... (MMCF)
...............02/23/13.(w)......432
...............02/24/13.(w)......432
...............02/25/13............429
...............02/26/13............438
...............02/27/13............414
...............02/28/13............481
...............03/01/13............448

...............03/02/13.(w)......441
...............03/03/13.(w)......440
...............03/04/13............440
...............03/05/13............427
...............03/06/13............420
...............03/07/13............418
...............03/08/13............435

...............03/09/13.(w)......447
...............03/10/13.(w)......447
...............03/11/13............451
...............03/12/13............430
...............03/13/13............434
...............03/14/13............424
...............03/15/13............440

...............03/16/13.(w)......422
...............03/17/13.(w)......413
...............03/18/13............403
...............03/19/13............402i
...............03/20/13............367i
...............03/21/13............355i
...............03/22/13............380i

...............03/23/13.(w)......417i
...............03/24/13.(w)......437i
...............03/25/13............407i
...............(w) = weekend (Saturday/Sunday)




Today's economic numbers...

...............Weeklies.....Production........Consumption
...............11/24/12.............117.4.................152.6
...............12/01/12.............117.4.................151.7
...............12/08/12.............117.6.................153.8
...............12/15/12.............117.8.................148.4
...............12/22/12.............118.7.................142.3
...............12/29/12.............119.3.................139.8
...............01/05/13.............120.6.................141.6
...............01/12/13.............121.1.................146.2
...............01/19/13.............121.7.................152.6
...............01/26/13.............121.7.................160.0
...............02/02/13.............121.2.................161.3
...............02/09/13.............121.1.................160.5
...............02/16/13.............120.9.................157.3
...............02/23/13.............120.6.................149.7
...............03/02/13.............121.4.................153.1r
...............03/09/13.............122.7.................162.8
...............03/16/13.............123.7.................170.0r
...............03/23/13.............124.5.................177.0


.........................................---28 week avg---........---Daily (Raw)---......Daily
................Dailies..............Prod'n.....Cons'n........Prod'n.....Cons'n......Food
...............02/21/13.............120.4.......151.5..........2.028.......40.04.......56878
...............02/22/13.............120.5.......150.1..........2.072.......39.05.......55019
...............02/23/13.............120.6.......149.7..........2.071.......41.35.......54459
...............02/24/13.............120.7.......149.5..........2.075.......41.35.......54255
...............02/25/13.............120.9.......149.3..........2.075.......41.05.......56050
...............02/26/13.............121.1.......149.6..........2.083.......44.50.......56401
...............02/27/13.............121.1.......149.6..........2.037.......42.05.......48727
...............02/28/13.............121.1.......149.8..........2.109.......46.88.......46141
...............03/01/13.............121.2.......151.2..........2.041.......49.32.......59032
...............03/02/13.............121.4.......153.1..........2.092.......53.00.......60062
...............03/03/13.............121.6.......155.0..........2.116.......53.00.......59844
...............03/04/13.............121.8.......156.4..........2.113.......46.50.......59932
...............03/05/13.............122.0.......157.7..........2.162.......45.95.......59694
...............03/06/13.............122.2.......159.1..........2.126.......46.95.......60503
...............03/07/13.............122.4.......159.9..........2.124.......42.00.......58229
...............03/08/13.............122.6.......160.7..........2.147.......42.50.......59152
...............03/09/13.............122.7.......162.8..........2.048.......48.57.......60850
...............03/10/13.............122.8.......165.3..........2.059.......52.57.......59161
...............03/11/13.............122.9.......167.7..........2.040.......52.77.......61774
...............03/12/13.............123.0.......169.0..........2.068.......45.16.......59627
...............03/13/13.............123.2.......169.7..........2.099.......44.16.......60472
...............03/14/13.............123.3.......169.7..........2.109.......39.36.......59237
...............03/15/13.............123.5.......170.0..........2.163.......44.77.......59487
...............03/16/13.............123.7.......170.1..........2.055.......44.77.......53800
...............03/17/13.............123.8.......170.6..........2.059.......44.77.......52296
...............03/18/13.............124.0.......171.6..........2.044.......44.77.......54589
...............03/19/13.............124.1.......172.7..........2.055.......43.29.......59755
...............03/20/13.............124.3.......173.9..........2.007i......42.49i.......56504i
...............03/21/13.............124.3.......175.0..........1.984i......42.49i.......58887i
...............03/22/13.............124.4.......176.2..........2.065i......42.49i.......57917i
...............03/23/13.............124.5.......177.0..........2.057i......42.54i.......55976i
...............03/24/13.............124.6i......177.7i..........2.059i......42.54i.......56848i
...............03/25/13................n/a...........n/a...............n/a.......42.54i.......55853i



     e-mail to a friend      printer-friendly     add to library      
|  
Recs: 46  
   Views: 994 []
Previous Message  Next Message    Post Message    Post a Reply return to message boardtop of board

Replies
Msg # Subject Author Recs Date Posted
112057 Re: Daily Gas Flows (Comments) movin_on_again 4 3/26/2013 6:48:31 AM
112060 Re: Daily Gas Flows (Comments) Q for robry825 gravol55 2 3/26/2013 7:56:23 AM
112063 Re: Daily Gas Flows (Comments) saintsinneridiot 23 3/26/2013 8:23:12 AM


Financial Market Data provided by
.
Loading...