AAV up over 10%
I posted this on the energy board today:
I'm a sucker for well managed companies and have no problem paying a premium for a company like AAV (see also COG).
On Feb 11 AAV announced 2018 year-end reserves and operations update that went largely un-noticed. Their 221% production replacement was led by a 22% increase in liquids reserves.
After the close yesterday AAV reported earnings. Their operating netback was $2.04/mmcfe which is amazing considering they dealt with AECO pricing for 22% of their production in 2018. AECO exposure is expected to be 20% in 2019.
This is Tudor, Pickering, Holt's 1st impression of AAV's earnings:
Given production, cash flow and spending were all pre-released with their recent reserves and guidance update, last night's Q4 results are expected to be neutral for the stock today, according to TudorPickeringHolt&Co., which has a Buy rating and C$3.50 target price on it.
As a reminder, TPH said, Q4 production of 45.7mboepd was in-line with the Street/TPH and Q4 capital spending of $52MM was above expectations as AAV brought nearly $30MM of 2019 spending forward into 2018. This allowed AAV to commensurately drop 2019 spending and maintain 2019 production guidance of 43.5 to 46.5mboepd. TPH noted liquids initiatives continue to be the focus for 2019 and it expects the efforts to begin to bear fruit with TPHe liquids weight to be 7%, up from 4% in 2018. After a $65MM spend in Q1'19, liquids volumes are expected to ramp in Q2 with the tie in of new wells at East Glacier and Valhalla, with a further slug of liquids growth in Q3 from Wembley/Pipestone.
TPH said while AAV has "certainly benefited "from the recent strength in AECO, even with the recently reduced 2019 capital program of TPHe $190MM (guide is C$185-$215MM) it still forecasts a $40MM outspend putting debt metrics in the 2.0x range. For the longer term investor, TPH sees the liquids potential as "materially undervalued."
AAV is just one of many nat gas companies operating in Western Canada in the Montney/Duvernay that look to be multi-baggers from current depressed levels. Even a whiff of a legitimate LNG export terminal, or as discussed recently a change in Government to Conservatives will jolt many of these stocks upward, and very quickly.