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Cowen - 20 EVENTS IN 2022 THAT COULD CHANGE PRACTICE, ALTER COMPANIES, MOVE STOCKSThe top 20 events for large cap Pharma expected in 2022 are listed below, in rough order of importance to investors. A timeline of these and other key events is on page 2. Beginning on page 3, we list these events in estimated chronological order and provide context for each. More than half of the events appear likely in H1:22, although these certainly could shift to H2:22. 1) Gantenerumab (RHHBY) Phase III Alzheimer's Readout 20) Deucravacitinib (BMY) Psoriasis FDA Approval And Labeling Bempeg (BMY/NKTR) Phase III Melanoma, Renal, Bladder Cancer Readouts Timing: Estimated Primary Completions April/June 2022 Bristol (BMY, Market Perform, $62.35)/Nektar’s (NKTR, Peaker, Outperform, $13.51) Bempeg receives little attention from investors, in part because there is a healthy amount of risk to these readouts which are testing Bempeg + Opdivo vs. Opdivo in 1L melanoma (CA045-011, H1 2022), Bempeg + Opdivo vs. TKI in 1L RCC (PIVOT-09, H2 2022), and Bempeg + Opdivo in cisplatin-ineligible bladder cancer (Phase II PIVOT-10, H2 2022). Still, if either or both of the melanoma or RCC trials are positive, they have the potential to reshape standard of care in two of the most lucrative tumor types for PD- (L)1 inhibitors. We estimate WW bempeg sales of $400MM in 2027. Deucravacitinib (BMY) Psoriasis FDA Approval And Labeling Timing: PDUFA September 10, 2022 Bristol’s (BMY, Market Perform, $62.35) Deucravacitinib potential hinges on its safety label. If FDA requires a black box, saddling the TYK2 inhibitor with JAK inhibitor class warnings, it could slow uptake. If not, deucravacitinib could conceivably be viewed as a more convenient, if less efficacious, alternative to biologics. We estimate WW deucravacitinib sales of $2.0B in 2027.
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Msg # | Subject | Author | Recs | Date Posted |
8831 | Re: Cowen - 20 EVENTS IN 2022 THAT COULD CHANGE PRACTICE, ALTER COMPANIES, MOVE STOCKS | Doolen | 6 | 1/16/2022 7:58:31 AM |
8832 | Re: Cowen - 20 EVENTS IN 2022 THAT COULD CHANGE PRACTICE, ALTER COMPANIES, MOVE STOCKS | tocentsworth | 1 | 1/17/2022 10:57:03 AM |