Assuming 33,000 bd. Running.
| Running |
|
|
| Benchm | Discount | Real Prices |
|
|
|
|
| Exc Rate | 1.3607 |
|
|
| WTI US | 76.42 |
|
|
| WIT Cdn | 103.984694 | -1 | 102.984694 |
|
| 57.80% | 60.103153132 |
| Edm Sweet Cdn |
|
|
|
| WTI WCS Dif US | -28 |
|
|
| WCS Cdn | 65.885094 | -11.4 | 54.485094 |
| Nymex us |
|
|
|
| Aeco Cdn | 8.0773950368 | 0.14 | 8.2173950368 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Production |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Light Oil | 12,184 | $102.98 | $115,436,230 |
| Heavy Oil | 6,448 | $54.49 | $32,319,618 |
| NGL | 2,620 | $60.10 | $14,488,636 |
| Natural Gas | 70,490 | $8.22 | $53,290,518 |
|
|
|
|
| Total Revenues | 33000 | $70.99 | $215,535,002 |
| Royalties | $10.65 | $32,330,250 |
| % | 15.00% | |
| Oper Costs | $10.65 | $32,330,250 |
| Transport | 3.29 | $9,988,440 |
| G&A | 1.73 | $5,252,280 |
| Interest | 3.4584980237 | 10500000 |
|
|
|
| Cash flow prior to Capex |
| $125,133,781 |
This is per quarter, without edges, so $500M cash flow less sustainable capital needed to compensate 7260bd at a 22% decline rate. Cost of developed resources is $10. $22,000 per bd seems reasonable, so $160M in sustainable capex. On a running basis $340M net free cash flow, for a $1B enterprise value.
