Feel like a fool going into earning at 48% weighting and getting hammered.
The story is not as bad as Q3 numbers are interpreted. Q4 2021 prod was 26,368 boed. Q42022 will be 33,000 boed. Delays in july, and 1 bad well push the growth to Q4.
Obsidian saw the opportunity in 2021 and contrary to large producers, decided to increase their production to 40,000 Boed. From their latest guidance, It will cost $325M to increase production by 6,700 Boed in 2022. Estimating decline at 22% on 2022 prod or 5800 boed, development costs are only $12,500 per boed.
Actual running, 33,000 boed,
Yes 40,000 boed will only happen end 2023, if everything is ok.
Right now annualized running at 33Kboed yield $480M flow from operations, less capex required to sustain production 22% of 33,000*12,500 of $90M, net $390M.
At 33,000 boed real cash flow is $390M, net debts are $323M, Market cap 974M, ent value 1.3B, rate of return is 30% and rising. I added