Replies to the news on the Energy Investing board | OBE Message Board Posts

Obsidian Energy Ltd.

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Msg  21732 of 21742  at  9/13/2022 3:26:25 PM  by


Replies to the news on the Energy Investing board


RE:OBE News (riskyinvestor)

OBE has stated that all of their 300k acres in the Peace River area are prospective for Clearwater and Bluesky formations.

THere is a lot of development potential in Peace River

Once you add in the 25+ years of drilling in the Cadium, OBE's reserves will grow significantly in the years ahead. I have them generating about 300+ million in FCF in 2023, making them debt free at year-end 2023. Why I only bought 10k shares at $.18 is beyond me.

Re: OBE news(oilmoneyAB)

I think there is a very real potential that they retire 8-10% of shares outstanding by end of H1 23. After that we will see a div/buyback combo. All while continuing to grow production. The biggest thing is the upside production growth is huge.

Re: OBE news (Naamkat)

Well, I don't think it's huge, there is a limit to how fast they can drill if they wish to continue to paydown debt reasonably expeditiously. Every one of their 3 core areas are base hits (maybe a double for Peace Arch, which makes a damn fine outcome over time). Couple that to steady debt paydown ($30m wasn't spectacular in and of itself, but as part of a package of positive events, yippee!) and eventually some modest share repurchases and it all creates a great story.




If you factor their current debt levels to current revenue it has 1 of the better balance sheets in the patch. Some will say it was risky them spending the capex Q42021 to Q1 2022 vs paying down debt...but that has paid off in spades and they have recovered that capex and now have the remaining increase production from that to benefit...debt paydown will slow down a little next q2 as they ramp capex even more but production is going to soar while debt is still chipped away and most likely some buyback commences. They will have probably 24 peace river wells come on by end of q1 2023....that is a ton of production.

The fcf Q2 2023 this company is going to have will beyond shock and awe the investment community.

Of course management is going to sandbag guidance...but follow the company...know the wells and how many they are going to drill...plug in your expected oil price and then look at the amount of fcf its about to generate....itll be one of the best performing stocks in 2023.

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